Goldman Sachs forecasts $100 billion global market for anti-obesity drugs by 2030

Goldman Sachs Research forecast on Oct. 30, 2023, that the global market for anti-obesity medications could grow to $100 billion by 2030, from roughly $6 billion on an annualized basis earlier that year — an increase of more than 16 times ^[1].

The projection rests heavily on one number: about 15 million adults in the United States may be treated with anti-obesity medications by 2030. Goldman Sachs Research describes that as roughly 13% of the eligible U.S. obese or overweight adult population ^[1]. The report lists insurance reimbursement rates, how long patients stay on treatment, and drug pricing as the other main factors that would determine sales. It names Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two companies expected to dominate the market ^[1].

Chris Shibutani, a senior biopharmaceuticals analyst in Goldman Sachs Research, wrote that "the obesity market is still in its early stages" and noted uncertainty around the assumptions in his team's model. The $100 billion figure is "relatively sensitive to minor tweaks to underlying drivers," he wrote ^[1]. Shibutani also wrote that the chronic weight management market is "undergoing an inflection," with a peak opportunity that could yield "some of the highest grossing drugs of all time" ^[1].

The forecast assumes a market that has changed quickly. The American Medical Association recognized obesity as a chronic disease in 2013 ^[1]. Early generation anti-obesity therapies produced 3% to 11% body weight reduction, and some were removed from U.S. and European markets or recommended for suspension after safety concerns were found ^[1]. Newer drugs in the incretin-mimetic class, led by GLP-1 receptor agonists, have achieved weight loss up to the mid-20% range, and Goldman Sachs Research says the next generation of anti-obesity medications may deliver better results ^[1].

Goldman Sachs Research points to the cost of obesity as context. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated U.S. obesity-related medical costs at about $173 billion in 2019, and the World Obesity Atlas projects total obesity-related costs — healthcare plus lost productivity — will exceed $4 trillion worldwide by 2035, about 3% of global GDP ^[1]. The World Health Organization says obesity has nearly tripled worldwide since 1975 and is the fifth-leading risk factor cited for contributing as a primary cause of death globally ^[1]. Based on current trends, more than half the global population will be overweight or obese by 2035, compared with 38% in 2020, according to the World Obesity Atlas 2023 forecast ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

The forecast is a sales projection, and sales depend on the same variables that shape what patients pay and whether they can stay on treatment. Insurance reimbursement, duration of use and drug pricing are the three drivers Goldman Sachs Research names ^[1]. A market that grows because more people are covered, or because patients stay on medication longer, looks different for patients than one that grows mainly because prices rise. The report does not break out how the $100 billion would be divided among those drivers, insurers, government programs and patients, and it includes no list prices or out-of-pocket estimates ^[1]. It also does not discuss manufacturing capacity or supply.

What happens next

The forecast looks to 2030. Whether it holds depends on reimbursement decisions, how long patients stay on the drugs, and pricing — all of which were unresolved when the report was published in October 2023 ^[1]. Goldman Sachs Research itself flags that the estimate could move with small changes to those assumptions ^[1]. The report does not name specific dates or decisions that would confirm or overturn the forecast.