Goldman Sachs sizes the anti-obesity drug market at $100 billion by 2030

Goldman Sachs Research published a forecast on October 30, 2023, estimating that the global market for anti-obesity medications could reach about $100 billion by 2030 — more than 16 times the roughly $6 billion annualized global market the firm said had been reached earlier that year ^[1].

The projection rests on a set of assumptions about how many people will actually take these drugs. Goldman's analysts estimated that roughly 15 million adults in the United States alone could be treated with anti-obesity medications by 2030. That works out to about 13% of the eligible US adult population with obesity or overweight, according to the firm ^[1].

What's behind the number

Patient count is only one input. Goldman listed insurance reimbursement rates, how long people stay on the drugs, and drug pricing as other factors likely to drive sales ^[1]. The firm named Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk — the makers of tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) and semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus) — as two companies expected to dominate the category ^[1].

The report's own author flagged how fragile the math is. "The obesity market is still in its early stages," wrote Chris Shibutani, senior biopharmaceuticals analyst at Goldman Sachs Research, noting uncertainties in the team's model. The $100 billion figure, he wrote, is "relatively sensitive to minor tweaks to underlying drivers" ^[1]. In other words, small changes in assumptions about price, insurance coverage or how long patients keep filling prescriptions could move the total significantly in either direction.

Goldman framed the growth as a break from earlier weight-loss drugs. Previous generations delivered only 3% to 11% body weight reduction, and some were pulled from markets in the US and Europe or recommended for suspension over safety concerns ^[1]. The newer incretin-mimetic class, led by GLP-1 receptor agonists, has achieved weight loss "up to the mid-20% range," the firm said, by stimulating receptors in the gastrointestinal tract and brain that promote insulin synthesis and reduce hunger ^[1]. Goldman added that there are indications the next generation of these drugs may perform better still ^[1].

The backdrop is a growing patient population. The World Health Organization reports obesity has nearly tripled worldwide since 1975 and ranks it the fifth-leading risk factor contributing as a primary cause of death globally ^[1]. A World Obesity Atlas 2023 forecast cited by Goldman projects that more than half the global population will be overweight or obese by 2035, up from 38% in 2020 ^[1]. The CDC estimated US obesity-related medical costs at about $173 billion in 2019, and the World Obesity Atlas puts total global healthcare and productivity costs above $4 trillion by 2035, or roughly 3% of global GDP ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

A Wall Street sales forecast is not a clinical finding, but it shapes decisions that patients feel directly. The $100 billion estimate assumes a specific mix of pricing and insurance reimbursement — and the same forecast that tells drugmakers the market is enormous also tells employers and insurers how large their potential bill could be. Goldman itself listed reimbursement as a key driver of whether the number holds ^[1].

The 13% penetration assumption is also worth reading carefully. It implies that, in Goldman's base case, the large majority of US adults who meet eligibility criteria would still not be on one of these drugs in 2030 ^[1]. The report does not say why — whether from cost, coverage limits, supply, side effects or personal choice. Those reasons are not addressed in the source.

For people already taking or considering semaglutide or tirzepatide, the practical takeaway is that duration of use is an explicit financial variable in these models ^[1]. How long people stay on treatment affects both company revenue and what payers decide to cover.

What happens next

Goldman's forecast runs through 2030 and does not include year-by-year milestones in the published article ^[1]. The firm described chronic weight management as a market "undergoing an inflection" with a peak opportunity that "could ultimately yield some of the highest grossing drugs of all time" ^[1]. Whether reimbursement and pricing follow the model's assumptions is not yet known.