Walmart data shows GLP-1 shoppers buy less food, US chief says
A major retailer's own shopping data is an early signal that GLP-1 medicines are changing grocery baskets, but Walmart has not said how large the shift is.
Walmart's U.S. business chief, John Furner, said the retailer's anonymized shopper records show that customers who fill prescriptions for GLP-1 medicines buy smaller grocery baskets than comparable shoppers who do not, describing the difference as "less units, slightly less calories" [1][2].
Furner made the comments in a Bloomberg interview published Oct. 4, 2023 [2], and NBC News reported them the next day [1]. "We definitely do see a slight change compared to the total population, we do see a slight pullback in overall basket," he said [2]. He cautioned that the signal is not strong enough for firm conclusions about the drugs, which include Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy [2].
To study the question, Walmart looks at shoppers who collect a GLP-1 prescription from one of its pharmacies and measures their purchases against those of people with similar profiles who are not filling such prescriptions there. The data is stripped of identifying information [1][2].
NBC News grouped semaglutide — sold as Ozempic to treat type 2 diabetes and as Wegovy for weight loss — with Mounjaro and Victoza in the category it described [1].
The number of prescriptions has climbed fast. Trilliant Health found that fills for these medicines quadrupled from late 2020 to 2022, hitting 9 million in the last three months of 2022 [1]. Fortune, citing a Trilliant Health report, put U.S. sales growth at 300% between 2020 and 2022 [2].
Walmart sells the drugs and also benefits from them. In August, CEO Doug McMillon told analysts on a call that food, consumables, and health and wellness would grow as a share of total sales in the second half, mainly because of the popularity of GLP-1 drugs [2].
The grocery shift comes after a period when Walmart drew more affluent shoppers. Inflation peaked at 9.1% in summer 2022, and the company said then that higher-income households were trading down to its stores [1].
Food manufacturers are paying attention too. Steve Cahillane, chief executive of Kellanova, whose brands include Pringles and Cheez-Its, said of the drugs: "Like everything that potentially impacts our business, we'll look at it, study it and, if necessary, mitigate" [2].
Why it matters for patients
What Walmart described is a measure of spending, not of eating or of health. It does not show how much any person consumes, what they eat, or whether a medicine is working [1][2].
The pattern is an average across groups, and the records carry no names, so it says nothing about an individual customer's diet [1][2].
There is also a limit in how the two groups are built. NBC News described the comparison group as shoppers who are "otherwise similar but aren't filling those scripts at Walmart" [1]. A person who fills a GLP-1 prescription at a different pharmacy could land in that group.
The size of the drop in food spending, which parts of the store it appears in, and how other differences between the two groups are handled have not been disclosed [1][2]. Furner's public description went no further than fewer items and slightly fewer calories [2].
For patients, the significance is visibility. The medicines now register with retailers and food companies as a spending category, not just with doctors and insurers [1][2]. Nothing about what the drugs are approved for, or how they are prescribed, changes.
What happens next
Walmart has not said when it will share more from the comparison, and Furner said it is too early to draw firm conclusions [2]. Kellanova said it would study the issue and act "if necessary," with no timeline given [2].
Sources
Semaglutides.org provides information only, not medical advice. Talk to a licensed provider about your own care before making changes. Some telehealth links are affiliate links and are labeled where they appear.