Cornell and Numerator study finds GLP-1 users cut grocery spending about 6%

Households with at least one person taking a GLP-1 medication cut their grocery spending by roughly 6% in the six months after starting the drug, according to a study by Cornell University's S.C. Johnson College of Business and the consumer data research firm Numerator ^[1][2]. The drop works out to about $416 a year per household, based on average monthly grocery spending of about $630 ^[1][2].

The two published accounts of the study describe the size of the decline slightly differently. Food Dive reports an approximately 6% decline ^[1], while Food Business News puts the six-month figure at about 5.5% and describes it as nearly 6% ^[2]. Both arrive at the same $416 annual reduction.

The study, titled "The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption Is Changing Consumer Food Purchases," was released Dec. 29 and examined 2,623 households with at least one GLP-1 user ^[2]. Those households were drawn from a sample of 22,712, taken from Numerator's 150,000-household US consumer panel, which was surveyed about GLP-1 drugs in four waves between October 2023 and July 2024 ^[2]. Researchers tracked grocery spending for six months before GLP-1 adoption and six months after ^[2].

The cutbacks were not evenly spread. Households earning more than $125,000 a year reduced monthly grocery purchases by 8.6% six months after starting a GLP-1, an annualized decrease of $690 ^[2]. Food Dive describes that group's decline as nearly 9% ^[1]. Households earning less than $125,000 cut spending by 4.2%, or $270 annualized ^[2].

Among 40 grocery categories with the highest spending, chips, sweet bakery items, side dishes and cookies showed some of the largest reductions, falling by an average of 6.7% to 11.1% ^[1][2]. Spending on chips and other savory snacks and on sweet bakery items dropped by more than 10% ^[1][2]. Categories falling 5% to 10% included cheese, soft drinks, ice cream, frozen meals and pizza, candy and chocolate, and meat ^[2].

The study found no statistically significant increase in spending on traditionally healthier products like fresh produce or whole grains across all GLP-1 adopters, though weight-loss users showed a modest increase in fresh produce and yogurt ^[1][2]. "The composition of their grocery baskets becomes healthier more by cutting back on unhealthy items than by adding more healthy ones," the researchers wrote ^[2]. Spending shifts were similar whether people took the drugs for weight loss or diabetes, and the difference between the two groups was not statistically significant ^[2].

At 12 months after starting, the spending reductions were smaller but remained negative and statistically significant, which the researchers said may reflect compliance challenges, waning drug efficacy or measurement limits ^[2]. GLP-1 users also spent less at limited-service restaurants at breakfast and dinner times ^[2].

Why it matters for patients

The study measures household grocery bills, not individual health outcomes. It does not report whether people ate more nutritiously, only that they bought fewer calorie-dense items ^[1][2]. A smaller grocery bill is a budget effect that appears within six months of starting treatment, and it is larger for households earning more than $125,000 a year ^[1][2].

Food companies are already adjusting. Nestlé launched a pre-meal Boost drink aimed at helping consumers feel full and a Vital Pursuit line for people using GLP-1 medications and others managing weight ^[1]. Conagra Brands is putting "GLP-1 friendly" labels on Healthy Choice meals ^[1]. Hershey CEO Michele Buck said in November the company was seeing a "mild" impact from GLP-1 drugs ^[1].

What happens next

Conagra said this month that more than two dozen of its Healthy Choice offerings will carry the "GLP-1 friendly" label, which Food Dive describes as the first time a major food brand has named the medications on packaging ^[1]. Morgan Stanley analysts forecast the global market for obesity drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030 ^[1]. Questions remain about the drugs' long-term health effects and how long people stay on them, which the study's authors said are still unresolved ^[1].