Circana projects GLP-1 households will drive over a third of US food sales
A Circana forecast says households with a GLP-1 user will account for 35% of US food and beverage units sold by 2030, which helps explain the surge in "GLP-1 friendly" labels in grocery aisles [1].
Market research firm Circana projected that households with at least one member taking a GLP-1 medication will represent more than a third of US food and beverage purchases by 2030, according to a report covered on Nov. 25, 2025 [1]. The forecast reframes GLP-1 users from a small, unusual group of shoppers into one of the biggest forces shaping what appears on grocery shelves.
Circana found that about 23% of US households currently include someone using a GLP-1 drug such as Ozempic or Wegovy, both of which are semaglutide [1]. By 2030, the firm projects those households will account for 35% of all food and beverage units sold [1]. Note that the two figures are not measuring the same thing: 23% describes households today, while 35% describes a projected share of products sold five years from now, and the report's own framing shifts between "sales" and "units sold" [1].
What the data say about buying habits
Circana's research describes GLP-1 users moving toward foods marketed as healthier and more convenient, with an emphasis on high protein, fiber, energy or hydration [1]. Users were reported to be more likely to avoid items high in carbohydrates and sugar, making a regular soda or a bag of chips a less likely purchase [1].
One counterintuitive finding: while people on GLP-1s buy less food overall, they spend more than non-users [1]. A separate report from ingredient supplier ADM found that 80% of consumers taking these drugs said they were willing to pay more for food and drinks that offer added health benefits, and 67% said "GLP-1 friendly" attributes matter in their purchasing decisions [1].
"The rise of GLP-1 medications is a huge moment for the CPG industry," Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor for Circana, said in a statement. "Our research shows shopper priorities are evolving quickly and dramatically" [1].
Food companies have already responded. Conagra added a GLP-1 friendly label to some Healthy Choice meals, Danone launched an Oikos yogurt drink aimed at GLP-1 users, and ramen maker Nissin started a brand targeting the same group [1].
Starting, stopping and starting again
Both reports also looked at what happens when people come off the drugs. ADM found that 76% of people who stopped regained at least some of the weight they had lost, and 65% said they would consider restarting a GLP-1 to limit food cravings or "food noise" [1]. Circana separately estimated that half of former GLP-1 users are likely to use the medications again at some point [1].
That churn is part of why manufacturers are paying attention. ADM suggested companies focus on ingredients that increase the feeling of fullness to reach people who have stopped taking the drugs [1]. The sources do not say how long people stayed on the medication, why they stopped, or how much weight was regained on average, so those details are not yet known.
Why it matters for patients
The most direct consequence is what shows up in stores. If a third of food and beverage units are expected to flow through GLP-1 households, manufacturers have a financial reason to reformulate products around protein, fiber and lower sugar, and to label them accordingly [1]. That could mean more choices that fit smaller appetites.
It also means more marketing aimed squarely at people on these drugs. "GLP-1 friendly" is a marketing term, not a regulated or clinically defined one, and nothing in these reports evaluates whether those products help anyone medically [1]. The finding that 80% of GLP-1 users will pay more for perceived health benefits suggests this group may also face higher prices for food positioned toward them [1].
Finally, the numbers are projections from market research firms with clients in the food industry, not government statistics or clinical data. Circana's 2030 estimate depends on assumptions about how many people start and stay on these medications, which the coverage does not spell out [1].
What happens next
The forecast runs through 2030 [1]. No interim milestones, methodology details or update schedule were given in the reporting.
Sources
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