Circana forecasts GLP-1 households will account for over a third of US food and beverage sales by 2030
A Circana forecast that households with a GLP-1 user will buy more than a third of US food and drinks by 2030 points to more protein- and fiber-focused products on shelves.
Market research firm Circana says households with a person on a GLP-1 weight loss drug are no longer a niche slice of the grocery business. In a report released in late November, the company projected that these households will account for more than 35% of all US food and beverage units sold by 2030 [1].
Today, roughly 23% of American households include someone taking a medication such as Ozempic or Wegovy, both semaglutide [1]. The forecast describes a move from about one in four households to a point where those homes buy over a third of the food and drinks sold in the country [1].
Appetite suppression reshapes what goes into the cart. Circana found that people on these drugs are more likely to pass on items high in carbohydrates and sugars, so a traditional soda or a bag of chips is a harder sell [1]. What draws them instead are products built around protein, fiber, energy or hydration, and around convenience, the report says [1].
Spending does not fall as fast as the amount of food bought. Households with a GLP-1 user purchase less groceries but spend more than households without one, Circana found [1]. A separate ADM report cited in the same article found that 80% of people taking these medications would pay more for food and drinks offering added health benefits, and 67% said GLP-1 friendly attributes matter when they choose products [1].
Food manufacturers are already moving. Conagra, Danone and ramen maker Nissin have each started developing items aimed at this group [1].
"The rise of GLP-1 medications is a huge moment for the CPG industry," said Sally Lyons Wyatt, Circana's global executive vice president and chief advisor, in a statement. "Our research shows shopper priorities are evolving quickly and dramatically" [1]. She said future success will depend on matching product selections and marketing to "the new health-focused mindset of this growing group of shoppers" [1].
The report also covers what happens when people stop. ADM found that 76% of those who quit regained at least some of the weight they had lost, and 65% said they would consider going back on a GLP-1 to quiet food cravings or "noise" [1]. Circana found half of former users are likely to take the drugs again [1].
Why it matters for patients
The projection is about shopping patterns across the country, not about how any individual responds to treatment. Still, it suggests shelves and labels may be rearranged around a group that now makes up a large share of US households.
Expect more products pitched to people on GLP-1s, with claims centered on protein, fiber, hydration and portion size [1]. ADM's finding that most users will pay extra for added health benefits suggests those items may cost more than the standard version [1].
Some of the survey data concerns people who have stopped treatment. Weight regain was common among former users in the ADM survey, and many said they would consider restarting, so food buying habits may swing back and forth as people move on and off the medications [1]. The report does not show whether the products marketed to this group improve nutrition or health, and it does not track clinical results; those questions have not been reported.
What happens next
The forecast looks five years out, to 2030 [1]. The report does not say when Circana plans to update the projection, and it does not name specific products the companies mentioned are preparing [1].
Medications referenced in the report include Ozempic and Wegovy, both semaglutide [1].
Sources
Semaglutides.org provides information only, not medical advice. Talk to a licensed provider about your own care before making changes. Some telehealth links are affiliate links and are labeled where they appear.