Study links GLP-1 drugs to 5.3% drop in household grocery spending

A peer-reviewed analysis of real grocery and restaurant purchases found that US households reduced grocery spending by an average of 5.3% within six months of starting a GLP-1 medication, and by more than 8% among higher-income households ^[1][2][3]. Spending at fast-food chains, coffee shops and other limited-service restaurants fell by about 8% ^[1][3].

The study was published Dec. 18 in the Journal of Marketing Research ^[1][3]. Its authors are Sylvia Hristakeva, an assistant professor of marketing, and Jura Liaukonyte, a professor, both at Cornell University's Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management ^[1].

How the study was done

The researchers combined two kinds of data. Numerator, a market research firm, provided grocery and restaurant transaction records for a nationally representative panel of about 150,000 US households. The researchers matched those records with repeated surveys asking whether household members were taking GLP-1 drugs, when they started and why ^[1][2][3].

That design let the team compare households that started a GLP-1 with similar households that did not, isolating what changed after the medication began ^[1][3]. Earlier studies relied on people reporting what they ate; this one used purchase records.

The study covers GLP-1 receptor agonists as a drug class, not individual brands. Results for specific products such as Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro or Zepbound have not been reported ^[1][3].

What changed in the grocery cart

The declines were not spread evenly. Ultra-processed, calorie-dense foods fell the most: savory snacks dropped about 10%, with similarly large decreases in sweets, baked goods and cookies ^[1][2][3]. Staples including bread, meat and eggs also declined ^[1][2][3].

Only a few categories rose. Yogurt increased the most, followed by fresh fruit, nutrition bars and meat snacks ^[1][2][3]. "The main pattern is a reduction in overall food purchases. Only a small number of categories show increases, and those increases are modest relative to the overall decline," Hristakeva said ^[1].

Among households that kept using the medication, lower food spending lasted at least a year, though the size of the reduction shrank over time ^[1][2][3]. About one-third of users stopped during the study period, and their food spending returned to pre-adoption levels. Their grocery baskets were slightly less healthy than before they started, driven in part by more spending on candy and chocolate ^[1][2].

"The data show clear changes in food spending following adoption," Hristakeva said. "After discontinuation, the effects become smaller and harder to distinguish from pre-adoption spending patterns" ^[1][2][3].

The share of US households reporting at least one GLP-1 user rose from about 11% in late 2023 to more than 16% by mid-2024 ^[1][2][3]. People taking the drugs for weight loss skewed younger and wealthier; those taking them for diabetes were older and more evenly spread across income groups ^[1][2][3].

The authors caution that the study cannot fully separate the drugs' biological effects from other lifestyle changes users may make at the same time. They note that clinical trial evidence, plus the reversion in spending after people stopped, suggests appetite suppression is likely a key mechanism ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

The findings describe averages across tens of thousands of households, not what any one person will experience. A 5.3% drop in grocery spending is modest at the household level, and the study does not report whether people bought less food, cheaper food, or both.

The category pattern may be familiar to people taking these drugs: less spent on snacks, sweets and baked goods, with small increases in yogurt and fruit ^[1][3]. The study does not recommend any diet, and it does not measure nutrition, weight or health outcomes.

The reversal after stopping is one of the clearer results. When about a third of users discontinued, spending returned to where it was before they started, and candy and chocolate purchases edged up ^[1][2]. That suggests the spending changes track the medication rather than a permanent habit shift.

The study also does not cover what patients pay for the medications themselves, insurance coverage, or how food spending compares with drug costs. Those figures have not been reported ^[1][2][3].

What happens next

The paper is now published and peer reviewed, so no further results from this dataset are expected ^[1][3]. Broader market projections come from other research: the market researcher Circana reports that 23% of US households currently include someone using a GLP-1, and projects that GLP-1 households will account for 35% of food and beverage units sold by 2030 ^[2]. The Cornell study's survey data run only through mid-2024, so its adoption estimates sit below those current figures ^[1][2][3].