Analysts cut obesity drug market forecasts by about 30%, citing falling US prices for Wegovy and Zepbound
The forecasts reflect falling cash prices for GLP-1 obesity drugs and slower expected growth, while coverage and cost remain the main reasons patients stop treatment.
Wall Street analysts have trimmed their forecasts for the global obesity drug market by about 30%, as falling US prices for GLP-1 treatments change expectations for how large the market will become and when it will peak [1].
Forecasts for 2030 now sit near $100 billion, down from earlier projections of $150 billion, and the $150 billion target has moved to 2035 for some analysts [1]. Jefferies cut its weight-loss market forecast by 20% in January, to a peak of $80 billion, down from an estimate in 2023 of more than $100 billion by the early 2030s [1]. Goldman Sachs now puts global obesity drug sales at $105 billion by 2030, down from $130 billion, based on steeper price erosion and changing patterns of use [1]. Goldman Sachs Research published a different number in May 2025, forecasting $95 billion by 2030, also down from $130 billion [2]. The two figures differ, and neither firm has said which one reflects its latest model.
"The peak has come down a little bit," said Terence McManus, portfolio manager at Bellevue Asset Management and a Lilly shareholder, pointing to pricing in the new consumer market and the launch of generic versions of Novo's Ozempic [1]. Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten was more direct: "That $150 billion pie is gone, even if you're very bullish on volumes" [1].
Not every analyst has cut. HSBC's Rajesh Kumar estimates the market at more than $120 billion by the end of 2030 and has not changed his long-term forecasts [1]. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in January he expects the obesity drug market to reach $150 billion a year by 2030; Pfizer recently closed a $10 billion deal for obesity drug biotech Metsera [1]. BMO Capital Markets, which in 2023 raised its forecast for annual GLP-1 sales to $158 billion by 2033, including $100 billion from obesity drugs, is betting falling prices will lift volumes [1]. TD Cowen analyst Michael Nedelcovych said his firm's $139 billion forecast for diabetes and obesity drugs could rise if direct-to-consumer purchases offset price erosion [1]. Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen said obesity sales would likely top $100 billion but that pricing pressure had brought a revenue hit forward to 2026 from 2027 [1].
When Wegovy (semaglutide) launched in 2021 and Eli Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide) launched in 2023, they retailed for about $1,000 a month in pharmacies. Facing political pressure to lower US costs, they are now sold on company websites at starting prices of $149 to $299, in part reflecting a deal with the Trump administration [1].
Prescriptions for Wegovy injection, the new Wegovy pill and Zepbound injection totaled 730,000 in the week ended Jan. 23, according to IQVIA data cited in an analyst note. New Wegovy prescriptions grew 4%, largely because of the pill, while Zepbound was up 0.9% [1]. In its May 2025 analysis, Goldman Sachs Research said it had raised its assumed annual price decline to 7% from about 2%, and that each 1 percentage point change affects its US peak sales estimate by $6 billion [2].
Why it matters for patients
Cash prices have already fallen sharply. The drugs that once cost about $1,000 a month at pharmacies now start at $149 to $299 on company websites, though what any individual pays depends on insurance and other factors not detailed in these reports [1].
Cost and coverage remain central. In a Goldman Sachs Research survey of more than 50 US doctors across 23 states, insurance coverage was the most important factor in prescribing decisions [2]. That model expects one in two patients to stop treatment, with cost and loss of insurance coverage together accounting for 60% to 64% of discontinuations and tolerability issues such as gastrointestinal side effects about 15% [2]. The same analysis lowered its assumed probability of Medicare covering obesity medications to 50% from 70% [2].
More oral options are coming. Whether weight-loss pills expand the market or mainly take share from injectables has not been established [1].
What happens next
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly report fourth-quarter results on Wednesday. Some analysts expect Novo to forecast a decline in sales and operating profit for 2026, while analysts expect Lilly to generate over 21% more revenue and adjusted earnings to grow over 40% in 2026 compared with 2025 estimates, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters [1]. Novo declined to comment and Lilly did not immediately respond to requests for comment [1].
Lilly expects approval for its own weight-loss pill in April [1]. HSBC's Kumar said 2026 will be a key year to gauge consumer demand [1]. Union Investment portfolio manager Markus Manns said, "In a few weeks we will at least have a better idea about the potential of orals," and whether they are expanding the market or taking share from injectables [1].
Sources
Semaglutides.org provides information only, not medical advice. Talk to a licensed provider about your own care before making changes. Some telehealth links are affiliate links and are labeled where they appear.