Milan diabetes meeting to feature mid-stage obesity drug data from Lilly, Roche and AstraZeneca
Mid-stage trial results presented at a major diabetes conference can shape which obesity drugs reach the U.S. market, though no outcome numbers for these studies have been disclosed yet.
The 62nd annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes opens Sept. 28 and runs through Oct. 2 at the Milan Convention Centre in Italy, with the scientific program beginning Sept. 29 [1][2]. Drugmakers including Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca and Roche are expected to present or discuss mid-stage obesity and incretin data during the five-day meeting [1][2].
Sept. 30 is the busiest day on the schedule. Lilly is expected to present Phase 2 data for eloralintide given with tirzepatide [1]. Also that day: results from the TRIUMPH-2 trial of retatrutide in people with obesity and type 2 diabetes, and Phase 2 findings for UBT251 in both obesity and type 2 diabetes [1]. Tirzepatide is sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound; retatrutide is an experimental Lilly drug.
On Oct. 1, Dr. Sean Wharton is scheduled to present primary results from SYNCHRONIZE-2, a trial of Boehringer Ingelheim's survodutide in obesity with type 2 diabetes [1].
AstraZeneca's AZD6234, described as a selective amylin receptor peptide agonist, is expected to have data presented at the meeting, according to William Blair analysts [2]. Those analysts also expect results from a Phase 2 trial of AZD6234 in people with overweight or obesity and type 2 diabetes who are on stable background GLP-1 therapy, and from the Phase 2b ASCEND study of AZD9550 plus AZD6234 in obesity [2].
Roche's Pharma Day falls on Sept. 28, inside the same window [1][2]. Roche is expected to report data from a Phase 2 trial of enicepatide in patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes; that study carries a completion date of Sept. 24 on ClinicalTrials.gov [2]. In a separate Phase 2 study of people with obesity, enicepatide produced 22.5% weight loss after nearly a year of treatment, Roche disclosed in January [2].
The backdrop is a market that IQVIA estimated at $66 billion in obesity therapeutic sales last year, with projections of $105 billion to $200 billion by 2027 and beyond [2]. Lilly's oral orforglipron, sold as Foundayo, is in regulatory review in more than 40 markets, and Lilly plans a submission for type 2 diabetes this year, with a retatrutide submission in obesity and overweight planned for early 2027 [2]. Novo Nordisk held about 90% of weekly oral obesity prescriptions as of July with its Wegovy pill, roughly 1.5 million people, according to William Blair [2]. The temporary Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program that began in July could grow coverage by an estimated 35% and reach around 20 million potential patients [2].
Oral arguments in Lilly v. Kennedy, a case about whether retatrutide is regulated as a drug or a biologic, are also expected during the month [1].
Why it matters for patients
The data coming out of Milan are mid-stage results, not approvals, and none of the specific outcomes for these trials has been disclosed in advance. What the presentations can do is show whether a given approach produces weight loss and blood sugar changes that justify larger trials — the step that has to happen before a drug can seek FDA review.
Several of the candidates in the spotlight are pills or combinations rather than the once-weekly injections that dominate the market today. New oral options, if they succeed, would add to a field where Lilly's Foundayo and Novo's Wegovy pill already compete [2].
Coverage is the other moving piece. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program began in July and is projected to expand access by about 35%, reaching an estimated 20 million potential patients [2]. Whether new drugs eventually land in that kind of coverage depends on trials and pricing decisions that are still years out.
What happens next
EASD runs through Oct. 2, with Roche's Pharma Day on Sept. 28 [1][2]. In November, the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions and Obesity Week follow, according to one researcher who tracks the field [1].
Beyond the conferences, a regulatory decision on CagriSema — a combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy — is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 [2]. Lilly has said it plans to file for Foundayo's use in type 2 diabetes this year and for retatrutide in obesity and overweight in early 2027 [2].
Sources
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