Analyst says the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge could become a blockbuster revenue line for Lilly

A new Medicare program that pays for weight-loss drugs is bringing in enough patients that one Wall Street analyst thinks it could become a major source of revenue for Eli Lilly. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge, which started July 1, 2026, passed 500,000 enrollees in its first two months, and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz put the number at roughly 600,000 ^[1][2].

Under the Bridge, the government pays drugmakers $245 for a month's supply, while beneficiaries pay a flat $50 copay at the pharmacy ^[1][2]. The White House said enrollees saved a combined $216 million through August 31 ^[1][2]. Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari used those figures to estimate annualized sales across the whole program at $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion, with Lilly's share landing between $900 million and $1.2 billion if its roughly 60% share of the broader U.S. obesity market carries over ^[1]. Tewari also calculated that enrollees filled prescriptions about 1.85 times over the two-month period, which he said points to strong early adherence, though he cautioned that long-term adherence is still uncertain ^[1].

The Bridge covers three products: Lilly's Foundayo (orforglipron) tablets, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in both injection and tablet form, and Lilly's Zepbound, but only in the KwikPen device ^[2]. Ozempic, Mounjaro, and Rybelsus remain covered under regular Part D for their other approved uses, not through the Bridge ^[2]. To qualify, a beneficiary generally needs a BMI of 35 or higher, or lower BMI thresholds paired with conditions like heart failure, uncontrolled high blood pressure, or advanced kidney disease ^[2]. People with diabetes, moderate to severe sleep apnea, or certain liver disease are directed back to standard Part D coverage instead ^[2].

Estimates of how many people could eventually qualify vary widely. The health policy group KFF put the eligible pool at 3.8 million Part D enrollees, while Lilly has cited a much larger figure of about 20 million describing the broader population with clinical obesity ^[1][2]. At the current pace, Tewari estimated the program would reach 25% of KFF's eligible group within another month or two before growth likely slows ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

For eligible seniors, the $50 copay is a steep discount from list prices, but the Bridge comes with real limits. The copay does not count toward the Part D deductible or the $2,100 annual out-of-pocket cap, is not eligible for Extra Help, and cannot be spread out through the Medicare Prescription Payment Plan ^[2]. There is also no formal appeals process if a prior authorization request is denied, though a prescriber can resubmit corrected information ^[2]. Because the program only applies to people who cannot already get a GLP-1 through standard Part D, some patients with related conditions, such as diabetes, may end up paying more than a neighbor who qualifies for the $50 rate ^[2].

The program is temporary. It is authorized only through December 31, 2027, so its long-term future is not settled ^[1][2]. Whether CMS extends it, folds it into standard Part D bidding, or lets it expire is not yet known.

What happens next

Analysts say the numbers to watch are whether the 600,000 sign-ups reported in the first two months represent an initial rush or a steady pace, how sales split between Lilly and Novo Nordisk, and what adherence looks like at six and twelve months ^[1][2]. Pharmacy chains CVS and Walgreens each reported about 100,000 Bridge fills by late August, an early signal of volume that will be tracked as the program continues ^[2]. The scheduled sunset at the end of 2027 is expected to be a key point of attention as that date approaches ^[2].