The GLP-1 Economy: Who Wins and Loses as Weight-Loss Drugs Spread

The clearest winners in the GLP-1 economy so far are the drug makers themselves, along with protein- and fiber-focused food brands, apparel retailers, and fitness services aimed at new strength trainers. The clearest losers are savory snacks, sweets, baked goods, soft drinks, and quick-service restaurants — especially pizza and chicken chains. In between sit a set of genuinely contested categories, including coffee shops, energy drinks, and full-service restaurants, where the available research disagrees about direction or shows no measurable impact yet.

The scale of the shift is what makes it an economy-wide story rather than a niche one. Twenty-one percent of US households included a current GLP-1 user as of May 2026, up from 9% in January 2025, according to PwC’s analysis of Numerator data ^[1]. Households that start the drugs cut grocery spending by an average of 5.3% within six months of adoption — an association the Cornell authors measured after adoption, not a proven drug effect in isolation ^[2] — while their apparel spending rises 9.9% after 6 to 8 months ^[1]. On the supply side, Morgan Stanley forecasts the global GLP-1 market for type-2 diabetes and obesity treatments will grow from $79 billion in 2025 to $190 billion by 2035 ^[6].

How many US households have someone on a GLP-1?

The most recent figure is 21% of US households as of May 2026, based on PwC’s analysis of Numerator data, more than double the 9% recorded in January 2025 ^[1]. Circana puts the current share slightly higher, at around 23% of US households, and projects that by 2030 these households will account for 35% of all US food and beverage units sold — a projection, not a measured outcome ^[4]. The Cornell/Numerator research team tracked the earlier run-up: the share of households with at least one user rose from about 11% in late 2023 to more than 16% by mid-2024 ^[2].

Adoption is broad rather than concentrated. PwC describes it as flat across income levels, nearly equal between men and women, and led by Gen X, with usage spanning every generation that has purchasing power ^[1]. Users are also staying on the drugs longer: 54% of surveyed users in 2026 had been on a GLP-1 for more than a year, up from 38% in 2024, and 37% of current users take them for weight loss alone, up from 24% in 2024 ^[1]. Those figures come from the 2026 PwC GLP-1 Usage & Attitudes Survey of more than 3,000 current, lapsed, and considering users, published June 22, 2026 ^[1].

User-count projections vary by firm. J.P. Morgan estimates roughly 10 million Americans were on GLP-1s in 2025, up from 6 million in 2024 and 5 million in 2023, and projects about 25 million by 2030 — while elsewhere in the same piece citing upwards of 30 million by 2030 ^[5]. Morgan Stanley’s base case has nearly 30% of the US obese or diabetic population treated by 2035, up from about 6% in 2025 ^[6]. An earlier Morgan Stanley estimate cited by AlixPartners put US users at 31.5 million by 2035, about 9% of the population ^[7].

How much less do GLP-1 households spend on groceries?

Grocery spending falls by an average of 5.3% within six months of a household member starting a GLP-1, according to the Cornell Dyson School and Numerator study published in the Journal of Marketing Research on December 18, 2025 ^[2]. Among higher-income households, the drop exceeds 8% ^[2]. PwC’s separate analysis of Numerator data puts the per-household grocery decline at 5.5% ^[1], and AlixPartners, citing the Cornell/Numerator work, notes the 5.5% cut was the same whether the medication was taken for weight loss or for diabetes ^[7].

The Cornell study is built on transaction records from a nationally representative Numerator panel of about 150,000 households, matched with repeated surveys about GLP-1 use, start dates, and reasons — which allowed the researchers to compare adopters with similar non-user households ^[2]. An earlier working-paper version of the same research reported a roughly 6% grocery decline, equal to about $416 per household per year, and $690 for households earning over $125,000 ^[3]. The published figure of 5.3% is the later, peer-reviewed number ^[2].

Among households that keep using the medication, lower food spending persists for at least a year, though the size of the reduction shrinks over time ^[2]. One important caveat comes from the authors themselves: the study cannot fully separate the biological effects of the drugs from other lifestyle changes users may make at the same time, though they note that spending reverts after discontinuation, which points to appetite suppression as a likely key mechanism ^[2].

Which food and drink categories are losing the most?

Savory snacks take the sharpest measured hit: spending drops about 10% within six months, with similarly large declines in sweets, baked goods, and cookies, and even staples like bread, meat, and eggs fall ^[2]. The earlier working paper put category reductions between 6.7% and 11.1%, including an 11% decline in savory snacks ^[3]. On the self-reported side, PwC’s survey finds 61% of current users buying fewer sweet treats and 56% buying fewer salty snacks, with sugary drinks and alcohol the biggest casualties ^[1].

Beverage categories show a graded impact in the Cornell/Numerator six-month data, as cited by AlixPartners ^[7]:

Beverage category	Average annualized impact
Soft drinks	−7.0%
Coffee & energy drinks	−4.0%
Juices	−4.0%
Alcohol	−1.4%
Water	−0.5%

Source: Cornell University and Numerator, six months after starting the medication, as cited by AlixPartners ^[7].

Morgan Stanley’s category analysis points the same direction: salty snacks and chips face the greatest pressure, sweet baked goods a slightly more moderate impact, and center-of-store staples like rice, pasta, beans, and cereal are relatively resilient ^[6]. Its US calorie model finds impacts so far are “modest,” partly because reduced consumption by new users is offset by weight regain among those who discontinue ^[6].

The biggest aggregate number is a forecast, not a measurement: J.P. Morgan projects GLP-1 treatments could lead to an annual revenue reduction of $30–$55 billion for the food and beverage industry by 2030–2034, assuming consumers take in 21% fewer calories and spend 31% less on groceries ^[5]. Circana’s projection that GLP-1 households will represent 35% of US food and beverage units sold by 2030 is the same kind of forward-looking estimate ^[4].

Not every company agrees the damage is real. PepsiCo has called the effect “negligible,” Coca-Cola points to its low- and no-calorie portfolio as a defense, and Molson Coors CEO Gavin Hattersley said on an April 2024 earnings call that there was no data suggesting a meaningful impact on the alcohol space ^[7]. Hershey CEO Michele Buck described the impact on the candy maker as “mild” in November 2024 ^[3].

Which food and nutrition categories are gaining?

Protein- and fiber-forward categories are the winners inside the grocery basket. In PwC’s data, Greek yogurt spending is up 6.8% among GLP-1 households, jerky up 7.9%, energy drinks up 7.0%, and nutrition bars up 3.4% ^[1]. In the Cornell/Numerator transaction data, yogurt rose the most of any category, followed by fresh fruit, nutrition bars, and meat snacks — though the authors describe those gains as modest relative to the overall decline ^[2]. On the survey side, 44% of current users say they are buying more fresh produce, 35% more packaged protein, and 34% more fresh protein ^[1].

One conflict worth flagging: PwC shows energy drinks up 7.0% among GLP-1 households ^[1], while the Cornell/Numerator beverage data cited by AlixPartners shows coffee and energy drinks down 4.0% ^[7]. The two datasets and methods differ, and the sources do not resolve the discrepancy.

Functional nutrition drinks are a clear measured winner. Sales of protein and meal-replacement liquids rose 11.1% to $4.7 billion in the 52 weeks ending June 19, 2024, according to SPINS data cited by AlixPartners ^[7]. Circana adds a nuance: GLP-1 users buy less food overall but still spend more than non-users, and they are drawn to products with high-protein, fiber, energy, or hydration claims ^[4]. An ADM report cited alongside that finding says 80% of consumers on the drugs are willing to pay more for added health benefits, and 67% say GLP-1-friendly attributes matter in purchase decisions ^[4]. PwC suggests brands test mini sizes and portion-controlled premium formats as a margin-protection play where indulgence volumes are collapsing ^[1].

How have food companies repositioned their products?

Food makers have moved from watching the trend to labeling it. Nestlé launched Vital Pursuit in 2024, its first major new US brand in nearly three decades, aimed at consumers taking GLP-1 medications and others managing weight ^[3]. In December 2024 it launched a Boost Pre-Meal Hunger Support protein drink aimed at GLP-1 and weight-loss drug users; CEO Mark Schneider has framed GLP-1s as an opportunity rather than a threat, with investment going into Boost, Vital Proteins, and Orgain ^[3][7].

Conagra added a “GLP-1 friendly” label to more than two dozen Healthy Choice meals, rolling out in January 2025 after a December 2024 announcement — making it the first major food brand to name the drug class on its packaging ^[3]. Danone has launched an Oikos yogurt drink aimed at GLP-1 users, and ramen maker Nissin has also introduced a brand to attract them ^[4].

What is happening to restaurants?

Quick-service restaurants are the measured loser. PwC finds spending per GLP-1 household on quick-service restaurants down 8.7% after 6 to 8 months, with wide variation by cuisine ^[1]:

Quick-service category	Spending change
Pizza	−22.2%
Chicken	−11.6%
Coffee/bakery	−8.0%
Burgers	−6.4%
Sandwich/delis	−4.5%

Source: PwC, spending per GLP-1 household after 6 to 8 months ^[1].

The Cornell/Numerator study found spending at limited-service restaurants — fast-food chains and coffee shops — fell by about 8% ^[2]. A Morgan Stanley survey cited by AlixPartners found 63% of GLP-1 users spent less on restaurant dining and takeout after starting, partly because of lower alcohol consumption ^[7].

But the restaurant story splits by service type. A Morgan Stanley AlphaWise analysis combining prescription and credit-card data across US zip codes with higher GLP-1 adoption found fast-food spending down — especially in higher-income areas — while full-service restaurant spending went up, suggesting a shift toward more experiential, quality-focused dining. That analysis found no evidence of an impact on coffee-shop chains ^[6].

What diners on the drugs say they want is smaller portions at proportionally lower prices: 35% of current users ask for that, and 32% want half-portions or split plates without an upcharge. Half of current and lapsed users say restaurants have not caught up ^[1].

Is alcohol a structural loser?

The measured spending impact on alcohol is small so far — a 1.4% annualized decline in the Cornell/Numerator six-month data ^[7] — but the survey evidence is stronger. A study of more than 14,000 WeightWatchers members, published via the American Medical Association, found 45.3% of GLP-1 patients who previously drank at least weekly reported drinking less after starting the medication ^[7].

Some investors are not waiting for harder proof. UK fund manager Terry Smith sold his stake in Diageo and wrote that he suspects the entire drinks sector is in the early stages of being negatively impacted by weight-loss drugs, and that the drugs seem likely eventually to be used to treat alcoholism ^[7]. On the research side, Morgan Stanley lists substance-use disorders among the emerging GLP-1 research indications, with initial clinical data expected within two years ^[6]. Company executives, for now, disagree: Molson Coors’ Hattersley said in April 2024 there was no data suggesting a meaningful impact on the alcohol space ^[7].

Why is apparel spending going up for GLP-1 users?

Apparel is the most directionally positive spending story tied to GLP-1 use: overall apparel spend is up 9.9% among users after 6 to 8 months on the drug ^[1]. Seventy-three percent of current users report a meaningful change in clothing size, and 26% say they are spending more on clothing overall ^[1]. Within apparel, PwC’s data shows women’s jeans up 66.1%, jewelry up 36.4%, swimwear up 31.1%, and dresses up 22.1% ^[1].

The dynamic is not a simple windfall. PwC notes that users drop sizes faster than they commit to new wardrobes, often because they do not know where they will land in three months ^[1]. That creates a merchandise-planning problem: last season’s size mix no longer predicts next season’s demand. The remedies PwC points to are flexible fits, generous exchange and alteration policies, styling support, and loyalty programs that reward customers as their size changes ^[1].

Where is the opening in fitness and wellness services?

Cardio is the most active fitness category for current users: 36% have increased walking, running, cycling, or swimming, versus 16% who reduced it, and 15% use wearables to manage their health on the medication ^[1]. Strength training is the growth gap — 21% of current users have increased it, 17% have decreased it, and 41% have never done it at all ^[1]. Group fitness is the one category under pressure, with 14% of current users decreasing class frequency versus 11% increasing it ^[1].

Morgan Stanley sees GLP-1 adoption as increasingly complementary to fitness, with high-income patients leaning into fitness offerings, especially high-end gym chains ^[6]. The support system around users is where the unmet demand sits: 80% of current users and 74% of lapsed users use at least one supporting product, but only 9% of current users have a GLP-1-specific app, and only 23% feel well-supported by today’s wellness platforms. Roughly 85% of current users say companies are falling short ^[1]. On prescriptions, 63% of users got or plan to get theirs from a primary care doctor, 10% from a specialist, and 7% via telehealth ^[1].

How big will the drug market itself get?

Morgan Stanley expects the global market for GLP-1 treatments of type-2 diabetes and obesity to reach $190 billion by 2035 — $40 billion above its prior estimate — up from $79 billion in 2025 and $15 billion in 2024. Its bull case is $240 billion and its bear case $170 billion ^[6]. J.P. Morgan forecasts the global incretin market, which includes GLP-1s, at $200 billion by 2030 ^[5]. An earlier Morgan Stanley figure cited in January 2025 reporting put the global obesity-drug market at $105 billion by 2030 ^[3]. Global GLP-1 sales have grown at a 36% compound annual rate over the past five years, according to the International Diabetes Federation ^[7].

Forecast	Firm	Figure
Global GLP-1 market, 2035 (base case)	Morgan Stanley	$190 billion
Global GLP-1 market, 2035 (bull / bear)	Morgan Stanley	$240B / $170B
Global incretin market, 2030	J.P. Morgan	$200 billion
Global obesity-drug market, 2030 (earlier estimate)	Morgan Stanley	$105 billion

Sources: ^[5][6][7]. All 2030 and 2035 figures are forecasts, not measured outcomes.

The competitive stakes are visible in deal-making. Pfizer paid $10 billion for Metsera in 2025 after a bidding war against seven other companies, having discontinued its own internal GLP-1 in May 2025 over liver issues ^[5]. Oral GLP-1s are the next supply-side shift: Novo Nordisk’s pill was approved at the end of 2025 and became widely available in early January 2026, and an oral option from Eli Lilly is expected in early Q2 2026 ^[5]. Morgan Stanley flags one near-term risk to growth — inflation, since a large share of GLP-1 sales are driven by out-of-pocket payments ^[6].

Who actually absorbs the cost — employers and insurers?

Employers are the pressure point in the middle. J.P. Morgan estimates about 55% of commercial employers currently cover GLP-1s for obesity, but 15% of those have dropped coverage due to unsustainable costs ^[5]. A Morgan Stanley AlphaWise survey of senior HR executives shows employer coverage for obesity rising from 44% in 2024 to 48% in 2025, with respondents projecting 65% by 2027 ^[6].

Government programs are moving too. The CMS BALANCE pilot, announced at the end of 2025, seeks to negotiate pricing and coverage terms with GLP-1 manufacturers on behalf of state Medicaid agencies and Medicare Part D plan sponsors, with Medicare recipients expected to face a $50 monthly cap on out-of-pocket spending ^[5][6]. J.P. Morgan expects the launch of oral GLP-1s to further increase pressure from employees for coverage ^[5].

What about medical devices and other adjacent sectors?

The predicted disruption has not shown up in medtech. Robbie Marcus, J.P. Morgan’s senior analyst for US medical supplies and devices, says there is no indication GLP-1s have negatively affected medtech volumes or pricing, and describes the sector as resilient ^[5].

The drug class is also expanding its footprint in medicine. Some products already carry indications for cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and sleep apnea, and emerging research points to potential applications in inflammation, neurological conditions, substance-use disorders, depression, psoriasis, Crohn’s disease, and asthma, with initial clinical data expected within two years ^[6].

What happens to spending when people stop taking the drug?

Discontinuation is the number every forecast depends on. In the Cornell/Numerator study, about one-third of users stopped taking the medication during the study period — and when they did, their food spending reverted to pre-adoption levels, and their grocery baskets became slightly less healthy than before they started, driven partly by increased spending on candy and chocolate ^[2].

The restart potential is large. ADM found 76% of those who stopped regained at least some weight, and 65% said they would consider restarting to limit cravings or “food noise” ^[4]. Circana finds half of previous GLP-1 users are likely to use them again ^[4]. Even off the drug, habits persist in part: 74% of lapsed users still use at least one supporting product, per PwC ^[1]. This churn is one reason Morgan Stanley’s calorie model shows only modest food-industry impact so far — reduced consumption by active users is partly offset by weight regain among those who quit ^[6].

The scoreboard: who wins, who loses, and what is still contested

Pulling the research together, the GLP-1 economy sorts into three buckets.

Gaining, based on measured spending and survey data: protein and fiber products, Greek yogurt, jerky, nutrition bars, fresh produce, apparel in aggregate, fitness services aimed at first-time strength trainers and high-end gyms, and the incretin drug makers riding a market forecast to $190 billion or more ^[1][5][6].

Losing: savory snacks, sweets, baked goods, cookies, soft drinks, juices, sugary drinks, and quick-service restaurants — with pizza (−22.2%) and chicken (−11.6%) the hardest hit cuisines in PwC’s data ^[1][2][6][7].

Genuinely contested: coffee shops and energy drinks, where PwC shows gains ^[1] and Cornell/Numerator and Morgan Stanley show declines or no impact ^[6][7]; full-service restaurants, where Morgan Stanley sees spending going up ^[6]; medtech, where no negative impact has been measured ^[5]; and the total size of the drug market, where 2035 forecasts range from $170 billion to $240 billion ^[6]. Company statements add a further caution — PepsiCo has called the effect negligible, Hershey mild, and Molson Coors sees no meaningful alcohol impact ^[3][7] — so not every category decline should be laid at GLP-1s’ feet.

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