Lilly says new launches will push 2023 revenue past $30 billion

On December 13, 2022, Eli Lilly told investors it expected to launch as many as five new treatments in 2023, with tirzepatide for obesity as the launch investors were watching most closely.^[1] Tirzepatide had already been approved for type 2 diabetes earlier in 2022 and was being sold under the brand name Mounjaro.^[1] Lilly Chief Executive David Ricks called tirzepatide for obesity and donanemab for Alzheimer's disease "generational opportunities," while describing the other three pipeline drugs — mirikizumab for inflammatory bowel disease, lebrikizumab for atopic dermatitis, and pirtobrutinib for cancer — as strong bets in crowded markets.^[1]

To support these launches, Lilly said it would raise marketing and related spending to between $6.9 billion and $7.1 billion for 2023, about $500 million more than in 2022.^[1] The company also planned research and development spending of $8.2 billion to $8.4 billion for the year.^[1] Lilly forecast 2023 revenue of $30.3 billion to $30.8 billion, above the Wall Street estimate of $30.12 billion tracked by Refinitiv IBES data at the time.^[1]

Despite the higher revenue outlook, Lilly's profit forecast fell short of what analysts expected. The company projected 2023 adjusted profit per share of $8.10 to $8.30, well below the analyst estimate of $9.15.^[1] Investors reacted by pushing Lilly shares down about 1%, to $363.59, on the day of the announcement, even though the stock had climbed roughly 31% over the course of 2022.^[1] Lilly also said it expected no further revenue from its COVID-19 antibody drug bebtelovimab, after the Food and Drug Administration pulled its authorization for the treatment in November 2022.^[1]

Why it matters for patients

This briefing came before tirzepatide for obesity had a name or a formal approval as a weight-loss drug. Lilly's public bet that tirzepatide would be a "generational opportunity" signaled to patients and doctors that the company saw strong demand ahead, which can shape how much a company invests in manufacturing capacity, marketing, and eventually supply.^[1] Manufacturing capacity has been a recurring issue for GLP-1 drugs, so early corporate spending decisions like these can affect how easily patients later find a drug in stock at the pharmacy.

The spending increases Lilly announced — in both marketing and research and development — also help explain the scale of the company's push behind obesity treatment in the years since. When a company raises marketing budgets by hundreds of millions of dollars for a single drug category, it often means more advertising, more information (and sometimes more confusion) reaching patients, and more pressure on insurers and pharmacy benefit managers to decide how to cover these products.

The fact that Lilly's profit forecast came in below analyst expectations, even as revenue guidance beat expectations, is a reminder that heavy investment in new drug launches carries real costs for a company. Investors read this as a sign that Lilly was willing to spend now for growth later, a bet the source notes was later validated once tirzepatide for obesity received approval and expectations set at this briefing were met.^[1]

What happens next

The source does not give a specific approval date for tirzepatide as an obesity treatment, and later became known as Zepbound. It does not detail results for donanemab, mirikizumab, lebrikizumab, or pirtobrutinib beyond noting they were expected in 2023. Readers should treat any timeline for approvals of these other drugs as not yet established by this source.