Denmark cuts 2025 growth forecast, blaming Novo Nordisk slowdown

Denmark's economy ministry cut its forecast for the country's growth this year to 1.4% on Friday, down from 3%, and attributed much of the revision to weaker prospects for Novo Nordisk, the Danish maker of Ozempic and Wegovy ^[1]. Higher U.S. tariffs and a downward statistical revision to earlier years also played a role, the ministry said ^[1].

Pharmaceuticals are now projected to add 1.3 percentage points to growth in Denmark's goods exports in 2025, compared with 8.1 percentage points a year earlier ^[1]. Overall goods export growth is expected to drop to 2.7% from 10.5% in 2024 ^[1]. Denmark's economy expanded 3.7% last year ^[1].

"Growth in the first quarter of 2025 has also been weaker than previously expected," the ministry said in a statement. "Together with the American tariff increases and downwardly adjusted expectations for the pharmaceutical industry, this has given rise to a significant downward adjustment of the estimate for GDP growth in 2025" ^[1].

Novo's U.S. exports climbed steeply late last year and then fell sharply in the opening months of 2025, according to the ministry, which linked the swing to inventory build-up and to tougher competition in the weight loss drug market ^[1]. Novo has been losing share there, and generic competition is narrowing its U.S. sales chances as well, the ministry said ^[1].

The reassessment follows a rough stretch for the company on the stock market. Novo briefly overtook the luxury group LVMH as Europe's most valuable company two years ago; since then its shares have dropped more than 10% in 2024 and more than 40% so far this year, as investors weighed competition from Eli Lilly, slower growth in the weight loss category and uncertainty about its next generation of treatments ^[1].

Sales, though, continue to rise. In results published earlier in August, Novo reported 67% year-over-year sales growth at constant exchange rates, reaching 19.53 billion Danish kroner, or $3.03 billion ^[1]. The company said it would put more emphasis on selling directly to consumers as it contends with copycat compounders and with President Donald Trump's push for lower drug prices in the United States ^[1].

Beyond pharma, the ministry flagged what it called a "significant degree of unpredictability linked to the U.S. administration's policy," saying it could hold back business investment and activity in Denmark even after the European Union and the United States reached a trade agreement ^[1]. Households, it added, are still uneasy about global events and high food prices ^[1].

The ministry said the Danish economy remains solid, with high employment and annual inflation expected to come in under 2% ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

Novo Nordisk is one of two companies whose branded GLP-1 medicines dominate the U.S. market, and the ministry's explanation describes pressures that reach patients indirectly: more rival products, compounded copies and cheaper alternatives are all eating into the company's American sales ^[1]. Tariff threats and political pressure over drug prices form the same backdrop ^[1]. Novo's response, a heavier focus on direct-to-consumer sales, is a business strategy ^[1].

What the forecast does not establish is whether the list prices or availability of Ozempic and Wegovy in the United States have changed. No supply disruption or U.S. price change is described, and none has been disclosed ^[1]. The revision measures Denmark's national output, not what a prescription costs at a U.S. pharmacy counter.

What happens next

Denmark now expects 2.1% growth in 2026, up from the 1.4% it had penciled in, on expectations of stronger private and public spending ^[1]. The ministry said unpredictability in U.S. policy remains a risk to that outlook ^[1]. A date for Novo Nordisk's next quarterly report has not been reported ^[1].