Novo Nordisk shares hit two-year low as analysts cut GLP-1 outlooks
The maker of Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus is under pricing and competition pressure, and analysts are split on whether the slide is over.
Novo Nordisk's US-listed shares fell to a two-year low of $35.91 on March 3, 2026, after a run of analyst downgrades and the company's own 2026 sales guidance came in below what analysts had expected [2]. The Danish drugmaker makes the semaglutide medicines Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus.
The February 2026 guidance projected 2026 adjusted sales falling 5% to 13% at constant exchange rates [1][2]. Analysts had expected a decline of roughly 2% [2]. Novo Nordisk pointed to pricing pressure from its Most Favoured Nation agreement with the US administration, competition from Eli Lilly's tirzepatide products, and the expiry of the semaglutide molecule patent in certain international markets [1].
The shares traded at $36.66 on March 25, 2026, and closed that day at $36.67 [1]. That is about 30% below the January 2, 2026 close of $52.49 and about 50% below the $73.86 close on March 25, 2025 [1].
Analysts are split
Bernstein started coverage with an Underperform rating and a 175 DKK target for the Copenhagen-listed shares, which it said equates to about $31 per US ADR [1]. TD Cowen downgraded the stock to Hold and cut its 12-month target to $42 from $45 [1]. CCB began coverage with an Outperform rating and a $43.29 target [1]. Berenberg kept a Buy rating but trimmed its target to 300 DKK from 360 DKK [1].
Earlier revisions included Deutsche Bank's cut to Hold with a 275 DKK target, down from 400 DKK [2], Goldman Sachs staying Neutral while cutting its target to $41 from $63 [2], and Morgan Stanley upgrading to Equal-weight with a $40 target [2]. MarketBeat's aggregate showed a Hold consensus and an average 12-month target of $49.93 [1], while Public.com reported a $57.92 average drawn from six analysts [2]. Those averages were compiled on different dates and combine estimates made before and after the February guidance reset [1], so they are not directly comparable.
Company actions and drug pricing
Novo Nordisk began a 15 billion DKK share buyback on February 4, 2026, and had repurchased 7,847,992 B shares at an average price of 266.53 DKK as of March 20, 2026 [1]. On March 2, 2026, it announced a €432 million ($506 million) expansion of its Athlone, Ireland, plant to increase oral GLP-1 production capacity [1].
On February 24, 2026, the company said it would cut US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic by up to 50% [2]. Morgan Stanley flagged a planned halving of Wegovy's US list price in 2027 among the risks it said were already reflected in the share price [2]. Separately, the FDA issued warning letters to 30 telehealth companies on March 3, 2026 over misleading claims about GLP-1 drugs, and the shares rose more than 3% that session [2].
Clinical news has also weighed on the stock. CagriSema, Novo Nordisk's next-generation obesity combination therapy, did not show non-inferiority against Eli Lilly's tirzepatide in the REDEFINE-4 Phase 3 trial [2], and a 15.7% weight-loss result in the REDEFINE 2 study left the efficacy debate unsettled [1].
Why it matters for patients
Novo Nordisk is one of two main suppliers of branded GLP-1 obesity and diabetes drugs in the US, so its pricing decisions and manufacturing plans shape what is available and what insurers pay for. The company has announced list price cuts of up to 50% for Wegovy and Ozempic [2], but the amount that reaches patients' out-of-pocket costs or premiums has not been disclosed. List price is not the same as net price, and the sources here do not give net pricing or coverage details.
The Ireland investment is aimed at oral GLP-1 capacity, the category that includes oral semaglutide, and it is described as a longer-term supply move rather than a near-term change [1]. Whether it affects supply of any specific product has not been reported.
The FDA's warning letters to 30 telehealth companies concerned marketing of compounded GLP-1s [2]. How that enforcement affects access to compounded versions has not been disclosed.
What happens next
Novo Nordisk has submitted CagriSema to the FDA for weight management, with a decision expected by late 2026 [1]. The Wegovy US list price reduction is planned for 2027 [2]. The 15 billion DKK buyback is ongoing [1]. Full-year results for 2026 and any revision to the sales guidance have not been announced.
Sources
Semaglutides.org provides information only, not medical advice. Talk to a licensed provider about your own care before making changes. Some telehealth links are affiliate links and are labeled where they appear.