Novo Nordisk shares hit a two-year low

Novo Nordisk's American depositary shares touched about $35.91 on March 3, 2026, their lowest level in two years, and were still down roughly 30% for the year by late March ^[1][2]. The slide followed a February 2026 forecast from the Danish drugmaker that 2026 adjusted sales, measured at constant exchange rates, could fall between 5% and 13%, a range well below what analysts had expected ^[1][2].

Novo Nordisk pointed to three forces behind the weaker outlook: pricing pressure tied to a Most Favoured Nation agreement with the US government, growing competition from Eli Lilly's tirzepatide products (sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound), and the expiration of semaglutide patents in some international markets ^[1]. Separately, on February 24, 2026, the company said it would cut US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic by up to 50% ^[2]. One analyst, Bernstein's Justin Smith, also flagged that Novo Nordisk's US compound patent on semaglutide is expected to expire by 2032, which he said adds to longer-term competitive risk ^[1].

Wall Street's response has been mixed and sometimes contradictory. Bernstein started coverage with an Underperform rating and a roughly $31 price target, and Goldman Sachs cut its target to $41 from $63 while keeping a Neutral rating ^[1][2]. Deutsche Bank and Kepler Capital Markets both downgraded the stock to Hold after a disappointing readout from the CagriSema obesity trial, with Deutsche Bank citing a failure to show CagriSema worked as well as tirzepatide in the REDEFINE-4 study ^[2]. Yet Morgan Stanley upgraded Novo Nordisk to Equal-weight with a $40 target, arguing the sell-off had already priced in much of the risk, and CCB and Berenberg kept more optimistic Buy or Outperform ratings ^[1][2]. One source also cites a 15.7% weight-loss result for CagriSema from a study called REDEFINE 2 ^[1], a figure that sits alongside the REDEFINE-4 setback reported elsewhere ^[2]; the sources do not fully reconcile how both findings fit together.

The company has also been trying to reassure investors. It is running a 15 billion Danish kroner share buyback, having repurchased shares at an average price of 266.53 DKK as of March 20, 2026 ^[1], and it announced a €432 million ($506 million) expansion of its Athlone, Ireland, plant on March 2, 2026 to boost oral GLP-1 manufacturing ^[1]. Shares got a brief, unrelated lift on March 3, 2026, when the FDA sent warning letters to 30 telehealth companies over misleading marketing of compounded GLP-1 drugs ^[2].

Why it matters for patients

A falling stock price does not change a prescription that's already in hand, but it reflects real shifts patients may feel. Novo Nordisk's own guidance points to price cuts of up to 50% on US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic, which could lower out-of-pocket costs for some patients depending on insurance and pharmacy pricing ^[2]. At the same time, the guidance cut signals that Novo Nordisk expects tougher competition from Lilly's tirzepatide drugs, which could affect which products insurers favor, how aggressively manufacturers discount, and how much money flows into future research on GLP-1 medicines, including newer options like oral semaglutide or orforglipron. The FDA's warning letters to telehealth companies are a separate matter but underscore ongoing federal scrutiny of how compounded and marketed GLP-1 products reach patients ^[2].

What happens next

Novo Nordisk has submitted CagriSema to the FDA for approval in weight management, with a decision expected by late 2026 ^[1]. The company's 15 billion DKK buyback program is ongoing, and the Ireland manufacturing expansion is a longer-term investment tied to future oral GLP-1 supply ^[1]. Analysts remain split on whether the stock's roughly 50% decline from its 2024 peak has already priced in the competitive and pricing pressures, or whether further downgrades are still ahead ^[1][2].