Generic competition in India starts eating into Lilly's share

Eli Lilly's share of India's GLP-1 weight-loss drug market fell to 56% in March from 61% in February, while Novo Nordisk held steady at 25%, according to data from industry intelligence provider Pharmarack ^[1]. The shift comes after semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, lost patent protection in India last month, opening the door to a wave of low-cost copies ^[1].

Thirteen Indian generic drugmakers have launched 26 brands of semaglutide in just a few weeks, according to the Pharmarack report cited in the CNBC article ^[1]. Analysts had expected the generic wave to hurt Novo Nordisk the most, since its patent expired, but early data show Eli Lilly took the bigger hit ^[1]. Vishal Manchanda, a pharma sector analyst at Indian brokerage Systematix Group, said the widening price gap between semaglutide and tirzepatide, combined with publicity around the cheaper generics, drove the erosion in Lilly's share ^[1].

Price is the main driver. Mumbai-based diabetologist Rajiv Kovil said Lilly's Mounjaro starts around 13,800 rupees (about $148) a month, more than double the cost of Novo's semaglutide drugs and roughly ten times the cheapest generic versions ^[1]. Novo Nordisk also cut its own prices on March 31, lowering Ozempic by 38% and Wegovy by 48%, according to a company press release ^[1]. That has narrowed the gap between Novo's branded products and generics: Novo's semaglutide now starts at 5,660 rupees a month, compared with about 4,200 rupees for higher-end generic copies, and some generics sell for as little as 1,290 rupees a month, according to Anant Kharad, director at Anand Rathi Investment Banking ^[1].

Demand for anti-obesity drugs in India, where Mounjaro is more popular than semaglutide-based treatments, is being fueled partly by short-term users seeking rapid results before events like weddings, according to experts cited in the report ^[1]. Kovil said the cheaper generics have created "immediate noise," pulling some patients and prescribers toward affordability-driven choices, especially among those seeking quick results ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

For patients in India, the arrival of two dozen new generic semaglutide brands means more choices at sharply lower prices, but it also raises questions about consistency. Kharad said "physician confidence in generic quality will be the key variable to watch over the next 12–18 months," suggesting doctors and patients are still sizing up whether the copies perform the same as branded drugs ^[1].

For US readers, this development does not change what is available domestically, since semaglutide remains patent-protected in the United States. But it offers a preview of what broader generic competition could look like once patents expire here, and it underscores that tirzepatide, sold in the US as Mounjaro and Zepbound, is being described by analysts as more effective but consistently more expensive than semaglutide ^[1]. Manchanda said that over time, tirzepatide may become concentrated among wealthier patients focused specifically on weight loss, given its higher price ^[1].

What happens next

India's GLP-1 market is projected to grow nearly five-fold, to 50 billion rupees by 2030, and by some more optimistic estimates to more than $1.2 billion, driven by rising obesity and diabetes rates and the entry of cheaper generics ^[1]. Many more Indian generic drugmakers are awaiting regulatory clearance to launch their own versions, and experts expect demand to eventually concentrate among four or five major players, including Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, and Zydus Lifesciences, according to Kharad ^[1]. India has around 100 million people living with diabetes and nearly a quarter of its population classified as overweight or obese, giving the market substantial room to grow ^[1].