Eli Lilly loses India GLP-1 share as generic semaglutide spreads and Novo Nordisk holds steady
Cheap Indian generics are reshaping the world's most price-sensitive GLP-1 market and forcing brand price cuts, while no comparable change in the United States has been reported.
Eli Lilly's share of India's GLP-1 weight-loss drug market fell to 56% in March from 61% in February, while Novo Nordisk held steady at 25%, according to data from the industry intelligence provider Pharmarack [1]. The decline came as low-priced Indian copies of semaglutide spread quickly. Generics had been expected to hurt Novo Nordisk most, but early data show Eli Lilly took the bigger hit [1].
Thirteen Indian generic drugmakers have launched 26 brands of semaglutide in a matter of weeks, after the semaglutide patent expired in India last month [1]. Semaglutide is the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, and the new generic products compete directly with both [1].
Novo Nordisk cut the price of Ozempic by 38% and Wegovy by 48%, the company said in a March 31 press release [1]. The cuts narrowed the gap with generics. Novo's semaglutide products now start at 5,660 rupees a month, compared with about 4,200 rupees for higher-end generic versions [1]. Some generic versions cost as little as 1,290 rupees a month, according to Anant Kharad, a director at Anand Rathi Investment Banking who leads the firm's pharma sector practice [1].
Eli Lilly's tirzepatide brand in India, Mounjaro, starts at about 13,800 rupees ($148) a month, according to Mumbai-based diabetologist Rajiv Kovil, who said that is more than double Novo Nordisk's semaglutide drugs and ten times the cheapest generics [1]. Vishal Manchanda, a pharma sector analyst at the Indian brokerage Systematix Group, said the widening cost difference between semaglutide and tirzepatide, along with publicity around the cheaper generics, drove the share loss [1]. He said tirzepatide may over time be limited to wealthier patients with a strong focus on weight loss, because it remains more effective but costs more [1].
Experts quoted in the report said demand for anti-obesity drugs in India is driven partly by short-term users seeking quick results, including people trying to lose weight rapidly before events such as weddings. In India, Mounjaro is more popular in that category than semaglutide-based treatments [1]. Kovil said the pull toward cheaper generic semaglutide is more pronounced among users seeking quick results [1]. India has about 100 million people living with diabetes and nearly a quarter of its population classified as overweight or obese, and its generic industry supplies around 20% of the world's generic medicines [1].
Why it matters for patients
India is a test of how fast brand-name GLP-1 prices fall once generics arrive. Novo Nordisk's cuts show a brand maker defending its position with price rather than giving up the market [1]. The two practical questions for patients anywhere are what a medicine costs and how much confidence they have in the product.
Whether similar generic semaglutide competition could reach the United States has not been reported, and no US price changes were disclosed [1]. Kharad said physician confidence in generic quality will be the key variable to watch over the next 12 to 18 months [1]. That question applies to any patient weighing a lower-priced copy against a brand-name product.
Tirzepatide's place also depends on price. If the cost gap with semaglutide keeps widening, Manchanda expects tirzepatide to concentrate among patients who can pay more and who are focused on weight loss [1].
What happens next
India's GLP-1 market is estimated to grow nearly five-fold to 50 billion rupees by 2030, and by some bullish estimates to more than $1.2 billion [1]. Many Indian generic drugmakers have launched GLP-1 drugs and several more are awaiting regulatory clearance, and experts said demand is likely to concentrate among just four or five players [1]. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Zydus Lifesciences were named as among the companies best positioned to capture the market [1].
No date has been reported for when the next set of Indian market-share figures will be published.
Sources
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