Goldman Sachs raises its 2030 obesity market forecast to $114 billion

Goldman Sachs has raised its 2030 forecast for the global obesity drug market to $114 billion, up from a prior estimate of $101 billion set in December 2025 ^[1]. Analysts Asad Haider and James Quigley say the increase reflects faster uptake of oral GLP-1 pills, stronger demand outside the United States, and lower prices that are pulling more patients into the market ^[1].

A big driver is the shift toward pills instead of injections. Oral prescriptions for new patients now make up 40% to 50% of the market, a jump Goldman ties to the strong launch of Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy ^[1]. The bank now expects oral drugs to account for 40%, or $46 billion, of the 2030 global revenue total, up from an earlier estimate of 35%, or $35 billion ^[1]. Within that oral category, Goldman shifted its expectations toward Wegovy's pill, now projected to hold 38% of oral sales versus 16% before, while Eli Lilly's Foundayo (orforglipron) is expected to hold 48%, down slightly from 54% ^[1]. Goldman raised its peak global sales forecast for the oral Wegovy pill to $17.4 billion, more than double its prior $8 billion estimate, and nudged its 2030 Foundayo sales forecast up to $22 billion from $19 billion ^[1].

Demand outside the U.S. is also stronger than expected. Goldman pointed to a faster-than-anticipated rollout of Lilly's Mounjaro internationally and now forecasts $48 billion in 2030 obesity sales outside the U.S., up from $39 billion ^[1]. That increase in overseas demand accounts for most of the jump in the overall global forecast, from $101 billion to $114 billion ^[1]. At the same time, Goldman lowered its U.S. direct-to-consumer pricing assumption by 20%, to $287 from $355, citing broad price declines and the shift toward cheaper oral drugs ^[1]. Haider expects Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk together to hold 82% of the global GLP-1 market by the end of the decade ^[1].

Medicare coverage is another factor in the forecast. Goldman expects an expansion of Medicare coverage for obesity drugs to begin July 1, tied to a GLP-1 "most favored nation" pricing deal, and models a potential opportunity affecting 17 million patients over time ^[1]. For 2026 alone, Goldman estimates $2.6 billion in Medicare-channel obesity drug sales, with most of that skewed toward injectable drugs rather than pills ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

For people currently taking or considering semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus) or tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound), this forecast points to two practical trends: more pill options and potentially lower prices. Goldman's lowered pricing assumption for the U.S. direct-to-consumer channel, down to $287 from $355, suggests analysts expect continued downward pressure on what patients pay out of pocket ^[1]. The expected Medicare coverage expansion starting around July 1 could also open access for a large group of patients who previously paid full price or went without coverage ^[1]. However, this is a market forecast from a bank, not a guarantee of what any individual will pay or what their insurance will cover.

What happens next

Goldman's model assumes Medicare's obesity drug coverage expansion, tied to the GLP-1 most favored nation pricing arrangement, begins July 1, 2026 ^[1]. The bank's estimates run through 2030, meaning the market share splits between Wegovy's pill, Foundayo, and injectable drugs described here are projections, not settled outcomes, and could shift again as sales data comes in ^[1].