Goldman Sachs lifts 2030 obesity drug forecast to $114 billion on oral GLP-1 demand

Goldman Sachs now expects the global obesity drug market to reach $114 billion by 2030, up from its previous estimate of $101 billion, according to a research note described by ZeroHedge ^[1]. The bank's analysts, led by Asad Haider and James Quigley, point to faster adoption of oral obesity pills, stronger demand outside the US and improved affordability ^[1].

The previous $101 billion forecast was made in December 2025 ^[1].

The biggest change is the shift toward pills. Oral new-to-brand prescriptions — a leading indicator of where prescribing is heading — are now running at 40% to 50% of the total, which Goldman ties to a strong launch of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill ^[1]. The bank now expects oral drugs to account for 40% of the 2030 global market, or $46 billion, up from a prior estimate of 35%, or $35 billion ^[1].

Goldman also rebalanced which oral products it expects to sell. It now gives Novo's Wegovy pill a 38% share of the oral market, up from 16% previously, while Eli Lilly's Foundayo — the brand name for orforglipron — drops to 48% from 54% ^[1]. Other oral products fall to 14% from 30% ^[1]. The note raises projected peak global sales for the Wegovy pill to $17.4 billion from $8 billion, and puts Foundayo's 2030 sales at $22 billion, up from $19 billion ^[1].

Sales outside the US drive most of the increase. Goldman now forecasts $48 billion in 2030 obesity sales outside the US, up from $39 billion, citing a stronger-than-expected ramp for Lilly's Mounjaro, which is tirzepatide ^[1]. On pricing, the bank cut its assumption for the US direct-to-consumer channel by 20%, to $287 from $355, citing lower prices broadly and a larger share of oral prescriptions ^[1].

Haider expects Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to hold 82% of the global GLP-1 market by the end of the decade ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

The forecast is a projection about industry revenue, not a promise about what any one person will pay or be prescribed. Still, the assumptions behind it touch on access questions patients face.

Goldman lowered its US direct-to-consumer price assumption to $287 from $355 ^[1]. That is a modeling input for the market as a whole, not a list price or a patient copay, and the note does not describe what individual patients would pay under insurance.

The bank expects obesity coverage expansion to begin on July 1 through the GLP-1 most-favored-nation deal, and models a potential 17 million-patient opportunity over time plus $2.6 billion in Medicare-channel obesity sales in 2026, mostly skewed toward injectables ^[1]. Details of which patients would qualify and what they would pay are not disclosed in the note as described ^[1].

A market concentrated between two companies — 82% share for Lilly and Novo Nordisk by 2030 in Goldman's estimate ^[1] — matters for supply and competition. Whether that concentration leads to more or less price pressure has not been reported ^[1].

Goldman also revised its oral-market split sharply in both directions: up for Novo's Wegovy pill, down for Lilly's Foundayo and for smaller players ^[1]. That reflects early prescription trends rather than confirmed long-term prescribing, and how the shares settle is not yet known.

What happens next

The nearest dated item in the forecast is Medicare obesity coverage expansion, which Goldman expects to begin on July 1 ^[1]. The bank's $2.6 billion Medicare-channel obesity sales figure applies to 2026 and is mostly skewed toward injectables ^[1].

The rest of the model looks out to 2030, the year of the $114 billion total and the $46 billion oral segment ^[1]. Goldman's underlying note was published for professional subscribers, and the full detail behind the revised numbers has not been disclosed publicly ^[1].