William Blair review maps obesity drug readouts through the end of 2026

A review from investment bank William Blair, circulated after second-quarter earnings, lays out the remaining 2026 milestones for drugmakers competing behind Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in obesity ^[1]. The report points to Roche's Sept. 28 Pharma Day, an AstraZeneca amylin data presentation at a fall diabetes meeting, Pfizer's plan to run ten Phase 3 trials of its long-acting GLP-1, and Novo Nordisk's late-stage starts for two experimental drugs, among other events ^[1][2].

The stakes are large. Obesity therapeutics reached $66 billion in sales in 2025, and IQVIA projects the market will grow to between $105 billion and $200 billion by 2027 and beyond ^[1][2]. Lilly and Novo Nordisk hold the early lead, and a group of other companies — large and small — is bidding for third place ^[1].

Roche's Sept. 28 Pharma Day

Roche, which has no approved obesity drug, could gain clinical ground this year. William Blair expects the company's Sept. 28 Pharma Day to shed light on results from a Phase 2 trial of enicepatide in people with obesity and type 2 diabetes; that study carries a completion date of Sept. 24 on ClinicalTrials.gov ^[1]. A separate Phase 2 study in people with obesity showed 22.5% weight loss after nearly a year of treatment, Roche reported in January ^[1].

The report also flags mid-stage updates for the once-daily oral candidate CT-966, the antibody emugrobart combined with Zepbound, and the weekly injectable amylin drug petrelintide, which Roche is developing with Zealand Pharma ^[1]. Late-stage trials of CT-996 and petrelintide in obesity are planned to start during 2026 ^[1].

AstraZeneca and Pfizer

AstraZeneca is expected to present data on AZD6234, a selective amylin receptor peptide agonist, at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes annual meeting, held Sept. 28 to Oct. 2 in Italy ^[1]. William Blair also expects results from a Phase 2 trial of AZD6234 in patients with overweight or obesity and type 2 diabetes who are on stable GLP-1 therapy, and from the Phase 2b ASCEND study testing AZD9550 plus AZD6234 in obesity ^[1][2]. Phase 3 readouts for AstraZeneca's oral GLP-1 elecoglipron are expected in 2027 or 2028 ^[1].

Pfizer is prioritizing berobenatide, an ultra-long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist it gained through its acquisition of Metsera, and plans to advance ten Phase 3 studies of the drug this year, with key results expected in 2028 ^[2]. Less frequent administration is the feature Pfizer is pursuing ^[2].

Novo Nordisk and Lilly

Novo Nordisk is scheduled to begin late-stage trials of its oral obesity drug zenagamtide and high-dose cagrilintide by the end of the year, according to William Blair ^[1]. Results from a maintenance-dose study of CagriSema — cagrilintide plus semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy — are also expected, and a regulatory decision on CagriSema is anticipated in the fourth quarter ^[1].

Novo's Wegovy pill held about 90% of weekly oral prescriptions as of July, roughly 1.5 million people, though the company reported a revenue stumble for the pill in the second quarter ^[1]. At Lilly, regulatory reviews for the oral obesity pill Foundayo are ongoing in more than 40 markets, and the company plans a submission for Foundayo in type 2 diabetes this year plus a submission for retatrutide in obesity and overweight in early 2027, according to the report ^[1]. Mid-stage results for the antibody bimagrumab and the oral small molecule naperiglipron could also arrive this year ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

None of these experimental drugs is approved for obesity, and most of the events described are trial starts or early data rather than decisions that change what is on a pharmacy shelf. Patients taking semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus) or tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) are not affected by these pipeline events today.

The pipeline matters mainly for what it could eventually offer: more oral options and injections given less often. Whether any of these candidates succeeds, what it would cost, and whether insurers would cover it has not been disclosed.

The near-term item with direct access implications is the temporary Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, which began in July and could grow coverage by an estimated 35%, reaching around 20 million potential patients in the program, according to William Blair ^[1].

What happens next

• Sept. 24: Listed completion date for the Phase 2 enicepatide trial in obesity and type 2 diabetes ^[1].
• Sept. 28: Roche Pharma Day, expected to include updates on mid-stage programs ^[1].
• Sept. 28 to Oct. 2: EASD annual meeting in Italy, where AZD6234 data are expected ^[1].
• By the end of 2026: Novo Nordisk expected to start Phase 3 trials of zenagamtide and high-dose cagrilintide ^[1].
• Fourth quarter of 2026: Regulatory decision expected for CagriSema ^[1].
• Early 2027: Lilly plans a regulatory submission for retatrutide in obesity and overweight ^[1].