William Blair maps the rest of 2026 for everyone chasing third place in obesity

An investment bank's post-earnings review of the obesity drug field has put dates on what is coming next, and it shows how crowded the race behind Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk has become. William Blair's report, circulated after second-quarter earnings season, lists readouts and trial starts from Roche, AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Novo Nordisk that land between now and the end of 2026 ^[1].

The money behind the race keeps growing. Obesity therapeutics reached $66 billion in sales in 2025, and IQVIA projects the market could climb to between $105 billion and $200 billion by 2027 and beyond ^[1][2].

The near-term calendar

Roche, which has no approved obesity drug, has the most concentrated set of events. Its Phase 2 trial of enicepatide, a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist, in people with obesity and type 2 diabetes carries a completion date of September 24 on ClinicalTrials.gov, and William Blair expects Roche's September 28 Pharma Day to shed light on the results ^[1]. A separate Phase 2 study in people with obesity produced 22.5% weight loss after nearly a year of treatment, Roche disclosed in January ^[1][2]. The same event is expected to bring updates on the once-daily oral CT-996, the antibody emugrobart combined with Zepbound (tirzepatide), and petrelintide, a once-weekly injectable amylin drug partnered with Zealand Pharma ^[1]. Roche plans to start late-stage trials of CT-996 and petrelintide in obesity this year ^[1]. (The BioSpace write-up refers to the oral candidate as both CT-966 and CT-996 ^[1].)

AstraZeneca is expected to present data on AZD6234, a selective amylin receptor peptide agonist, at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes annual meeting, running September 28 to October 2 in Italy ^[1]. Analysts also expect results from a Phase 2 trial of AZD6234 in people with overweight or obesity and type 2 diabetes who are already on stable GLP-1 therapy, and from the Phase 2b ASCEND study pairing AZD6234 with the GLP-1/glucagon dual agonist AZD9550 ^[1]. The company's oral GLP-1, elecoglipron, is in Phase 3, but those trials are not expected to read out until 2027 or 2028 ^[1].

Pfizer, which bought obesity startup Metsera last year, is putting its weight behind berobenatide, an ultra-long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist being studied as a monthly injection. The company plans to advance 10 Phase 3 studies this year, with key results expected in 2028 ^[2].

Novo Nordisk is scheduled to begin Phase 3 trials of its oral obesity drug zenagamtide and of high-dose cagrilintide by year end ^[1][2]. A regulatory decision on CagriSema — cagrilintide plus semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy — is expected in the fourth quarter, and results from a maintenance-dose study are also anticipated ^[1][2]. Novo recently started a Phase 3 study testing two doses of the oral Wegovy pill to find what it calls the most optimal lower dose ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

Most of these milestones are data and paperwork, not new prescriptions. But they set up what options may exist in two to four years, and whether any of them come as monthly shots, daily pills or amylin-based drugs that work differently from today's GLP-1s.

The nearer-term changes involve access and the oral market. Novo's Wegovy pill held about 90% of weekly oral prescriptions as of July, roughly 1.5 million people, many of them new to GLP-1s ^[1][2]. Lilly's oral drug Foundayo (orforglipron) is under regulatory review in more than 40 markets ^[1]. One aggregator source describes Foundayo as oral tirzepatide ^[2]; the BioSpace report calls it simply Lilly's oral obesity pill ^[1].

Coverage is also shifting. The temporary Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, which began in July, could expand coverage by an estimated 35% and reach about 20 million potential patients, according to William Blair ^[1][2].

What happens next

September 24: listed completion date for Roche's enicepatide Phase 2 in obesity and type 2 diabetes ^[1]. September 28: Roche Pharma Day ^[1]. September 28 to October 2: EASD, where AZD6234 data are expected ^[1]. Fourth quarter: CagriSema regulatory decision ^[1][2]. Lilly plans a retatrutide submission in obesity in early 2027 ^[1].