Amgen shares slide about 10 percent after a rival's Lp(a) trial fails

Amgen shares fell more than 10% in early trading, with the stock priced around $405 and the company's market value near $213 billion, after Novartis reported that its Lp(a)-lowering drug pelacarsen missed the main goal of a large heart-outcomes trial.^[1] Lp(a) is a type of cholesterol particle linked to heart disease risk, and Amgen has its own similar drug, olpasiran, in development. Because pelacarsen worked in a similar way and still failed to reduce cardiovascular events, analysts say it raises doubts about whether olpasiran can succeed either.^[1]

The stock move matters because Amgen has roughly $13 billion of revenue tied to drugs that are losing patent protection in the coming years.^[1] One analyst, writing for Seeking Alpha, downgraded Amgen's stock rating to Hold, saying the company's pipeline — especially olpasiran and its obesity drug MariTide — now has to deliver in order to offset the declines expected as older products lose exclusivity.^[1] Not every analyst agreed with that view. Related coverage cited in the same report includes a separate piece framing the selloff as a buying opportunity, showing that Wall Street is split on how much damage the Novartis news actually does to Amgen's outlook.^[1]

MariTide is Amgen's experimental obesity treatment and is one of several drugs racing to compete with Eli Lilly's tirzepatide products (Mounjaro and Zepbound) and Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products (Ozempic, Wegovy, and the pill Rybelsus).^[2] The broader obesity drug market took in $66 billion in sales last year and analysts expect that figure to keep climbing, with estimates ranging from $105 billion to $200 billion by 2027 and beyond.^[2] Lilly and Novo currently dominate that market, but companies including Roche, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Amgen are all trying to grab a share of it.^[2]

Why it matters for patients

This news is a corporate finance story, not a clinical one, and it does not change what is known about any approved GLP-1 drug's safety or effectiveness. But it matters to patients in an indirect way. Amgen's MariTide is still in development and has not been approved by the FDA. The Seeking Alpha analysis makes clear that Amgen's stock price and financial strength are now more dependent than before on whether MariTide succeeds in ongoing trials, since a separate program (olpasiran) just took a credibility hit from a competitor's failed study.^[1] If a company's finances are squeezed by patent losses and pipeline setbacks, it can affect how aggressively that company invests in manufacturing, marketing, and future trials for a drug patients may eventually want access to. For now, patients considering or using GLP-1 medications from Lilly or Novo are not directly affected by this specific event, since MariTide is a separate, unapproved drug. The wider obesity drug market keeps growing regardless, with multiple companies pursuing new pills and injections that could eventually offer patients more choices.^[2]

What happens next

Analysts expect several other obesity-drug catalysts later this year, though these come from companies other than Amgen. Roche has a Pharma Day scheduled for September 28, where it plans to share updates on multiple obesity drug candidates.^[2] AstraZeneca is expected to present amylin drug data at a diabetes conference running September 28 through October 2 in Italy.^[2] Novo Nordisk expects a regulatory decision on its combination drug CagriSema in the fourth quarter of this year.^[2] None of these sources indicate a specific date for new olpasiran or MariTide trial results, so the timeline for Amgen's own pipeline read-throughs is not yet known from these reports.