Aspen forecasts more than $124 million in Mounjaro sales across Africa in 2027
A regional sales forecast for Lilly's tirzepatide shows demand growing outside the United States, but it does not change US supplies, prices or insurance coverage.
Aspen Pharmacare expects sales of Eli Lilly's Mounjaro in sub-Saharan Africa to exceed 2 billion rand, or about $124 million, in its current financial year, the South African company said on Sept. 3 [1]. Aspen is Lilly's official distributor of the tirzepatide drug across the region [1].
Chief Executive Stephen Saad told investors that Aspen had submitted Mounjaro for registration in Kenya and Nigeria, and that both markets could contribute to earnings in the year to end-June 2027 if approved [1]. Aspen's financial year runs to the end of June [1].
Aspen had previously forecast more than 1.3 billion rand in Mounjaro sales for the year to end-June 2026, Saad said. The company has not disclosed its actual sales figure for that period [1].
In South Africa, the market for GLP-1 drugs nearly doubled in value to 2.8 billion rand in the year to June, driven largely by demand for Mounjaro, which Aspen launched there in late 2024, Saad said [1]. Mounjaro's share of that market rose to 53% from 15% a year earlier [1]. The rand-to-dollar rate used in the forecast was $1 = 16.0681 rand [1].
Aspen is also preparing to sell a generic version of Novo Nordisk's Ozempic in selected markets once patents expire [1]. It has secured two registrations in Canada and filed applications in several emerging markets, according to the company [1]. The timing of a Canadian launch depends on the supply of the active pharmaceutical ingredient from India's Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, which halted production of new batches in July because of an impurity issue [1]. Saad said Aspen expected greater clarity on that supply arrangement before the end of September. Brazil, another market where registration is progressing, will use a different ingredient supplier [1].
Mounjaro is a tirzepatide injection. Ozempic is semaglutide; the two are different molecules made by different companies [1].
Why it matters for patients
This forecast is about sales and availability in sub-Saharan Africa. Nothing in the report changes what is stocked, priced or covered in the United States, and no effect on US supply, US prices or US insurance coverage was disclosed [1].
The figures are one measure of how demand for tirzepatide is growing outside the US. Mounjaro's climb to 53% of South Africa's market within roughly a year and a half of launch shows how fast one brand can take over a market where few options are available [1].
The generic semaglutide plans are at an earlier stage. Aspen has named Canada, Brazil and unidentified emerging markets, not the United States, and no US launch date or US filing has been reported [1]. The impurity problem at Dr. Reddy's affects the ingredient for Aspen's generic product and had already halted new production batches as of July; the report does not say whether it affects anything sold in the US [1].
No new information about the safety or effectiveness of tirzepatide or semaglutide was included [1].
What happens next
Aspen says it expects more clarity on its ingredient supply arrangement before the end of September 2026 [1]. Registration decisions in Kenya and Nigeria have no announced dates [1]. The 2 billion rand figure is a forecast, not reported revenue, and Aspen has not disclosed its actual Mounjaro sales for the year that ended in June 2026 [1].
Sources
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