Lilly's African partner forecasts more than $124 million of Mounjaro sales in 2027

Aspen Pharmacare, the South African company that distributes Eli Lilly's tirzepatide under the Mounjaro brand across sub-Saharan Africa, told investors on September 3, 2026, that it expects sales of the drug to top 2 billion rand, or more than $124 million, in its fiscal year 2027.^[1] Chief Executive Stephen Saad made the forecast a day after Aspen reported its annual results, saying the company was "hoping to do more than 2 billion rand in sales in financial year 2027."^[1]

The estimate is Aspen's first public revenue projection for Mounjaro in the region. It builds on an earlier forecast of more than 1.3 billion rand for the fiscal year ending June 2026, though Aspen has not disclosed what it actually sold that year.^[1] To hit the new target, Aspen is counting on approvals in additional countries. The company has submitted Mounjaro for registration in Kenya and Nigeria, and Saad said both markets could contribute to earnings if cleared for sale.^[1]

Demand is already surging in South Africa, where Mounjaro launched in late 2024. Saad said the drug's share of the country's GLP-1 market jumped to 53% from 15% a year earlier, helping push the overall South African GLP-1 market to 2.8 billion rand for the year ending in June, nearly double its size the year before.^[1]

Aspen is also working on a generic version of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, sold in the US as Ozempic, once patents lapse in various countries. The company has secured two registrations in Canada and filed applications in several emerging markets.^[1] But the Canadian launch date depends on when Aspen can secure active pharmaceutical ingredient from India's Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, which halted production of new batches in July 2026 because of an impurity issue.^[1] Saad said Aspen expects more clarity on that supply arrangement before the end of September 2026.^[1] For Brazil, another market where Aspen is making registration progress, the company plans to use a different API supplier.^[1]

Why it matters for patients

This news is about Africa, not the United States, and it does not change prices, availability, or insurance coverage for patients using Mounjaro, Zepbound, Ozempic, Wegovy, or Foundayo in the US. But it offers a window into how fast tirzepatide demand is growing worldwide and how manufacturing and licensing arrangements are expanding beyond Lilly's own supply chain. Aspen's numbers show that even a single regional distributor expects the drug's market to keep climbing sharply, which speaks to the broader global squeeze on GLP-1 supply that has affected shortages and allocation decisions in multiple countries, including the US, in recent years.

The generic semaglutide effort is also worth watching from a distance. Aspen's plan to sell a generic Ozempic once patents expire in select markets, and the API supply problems tied to Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, illustrate how fragile international generic manufacturing chains for GLP-1 drugs can be even before any product reaches US shelves. Novo Nordisk's semaglutide patents and market exclusivity in the US operate on a different timeline than in Canada, Brazil, or emerging markets, so this development does not signal an imminent US generic. It is not yet known when, or whether, generic tirzepatide or semaglutide will become available to US patients, and nothing in Aspen's announcement addresses that question directly.^[1]

What happens next

Aspen said it expects more clarity on its Canadian API supply situation from Dr. Reddy's Laboratories before the end of September 2026.^[1] Its fiscal year 2027 sales forecast for Mounjaro in Africa runs through June 2027, and hinges partly on pending regulatory approvals in Kenya and Nigeria.^[1]