Novo shares sit down about 13% over 12 months

Novo Nordisk's US-listed shares showed a one-year total return of roughly negative 13% and a three-year return near negative 46% as of early September 2026, according to market data ^[1]. The stock has not recovered from its 2025 collapse, and new analyst commentary suggests the company's near-term outlook remains under pressure ^[2].

On September 11, 2026, Morgan Stanley downgraded Novo Nordisk to "Underweight" from "Equal-weight," citing a subdued mid-term growth outlook and the looming patent cliff for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy ^[2]. The bank kept its price target at 250 Danish crowns, which it said implies more than 10% downside from the stock's last closing price at the time ^[2]. Novo shares fell 2.6% in early Copenhagen trading following the downgrade ^[2].

Semaglutide made up 75% of Novo's total sales in 2026, and Morgan Stanley said the drug faces a large loss-of-exclusivity event in the early-to-mid 2030s across Europe and the United States ^[2]. The bank still expects semaglutide to represent 59% of sales in 2031, when the patent cliff's effects begin, and forecasts Novo's oral obesity products will reach $10 billion in sales by that year — a figure it says will not be enough to offset pricing and competitive pressure ^[2]. Morgan Stanley also pointed to a survey of 200 primary care physicians suggesting Novo could lose market share over the next 18 months to Eli Lilly's existing drugs and its upcoming retatrutide, expected in 2027 ^[2].

On valuation, the analysts noted Novo trades at 12.5 times its 2027 estimated earnings, a discount to European pharmaceutical peers but a premium compared with companies like Sanofi and GSK that face their own patent expirations ^[2]. Morgan Stanley said it sees "limited scope for major announcements" at Novo's capital markets day scheduled for September 21, 2026, though the company is expected to reiterate its strategy for the oral obesity market and provide updates on areas including MASH and chronic kidney disease ^[2].

Why it matters for patients

A drugmaker's stock price does not directly change what a patient pays at the pharmacy counter or whether a prescription gets filled. But sustained pressure on Novo Nordisk's financial outlook, including concerns about competition and future patent expirations, can shape decisions the company makes about pricing, manufacturing investment, and how aggressively it markets or discounts drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy in the years ahead ^[2]. Analysts specifically flagged that Novo could lose ground to Eli Lilly's tirzepatide-based products and future drugs like retatrutide, which may affect how much competition exists among GLP-1 options patients see in the market ^[2].

The patent cliff analysts describe is not immediate. Morgan Stanley's own modeling assumes semaglutide still accounts for the majority of Novo's sales through at least 2031, meaning any generic competition affecting prices is likely years away, not a near-term change ^[2].

What happens next

Novo Nordisk is scheduled to hold a capital markets day on September 21, 2026, where the company is expected to discuss its oral obesity strategy and business development priorities, though Morgan Stanley does not expect major new announcements at that event ^[2]. Beyond that, the sources do not specify further dated milestones for Novo's stock performance or pipeline, and what the company will do to respond to competitive and patent pressures is not yet known.