Report projects obesity drug market growing about 27% a year through 2036

A market report published September 8, 2026 projects that the obesity drug market will grow at a compound annual rate of about 27% from 2022 through 2036, driven by oral GLP-1 therapies and new drugs in development ^[1]. The forecast covers the United States, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.

The report, from Research and Markets, values the obesity market in those seven countries at about $16 billion in 2025 ^[1]. The United States accounted for roughly 60% of prevalent obesity cases and generated nearly $13 billion in obesity treatment sales that year, while the combined market in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom exceeded $2.5 billion ^[1]. Germany led Europe with about 18 million prevalent cases and a market value of about $720 million, and Japan's market reached about $70 million ^[1]. The report also counted about 7 million children aged 5 to 19 in the United States living with obesity in 2025 ^[1].

A different total comes from IQVIA, whose director of supplier services, Scott Biggs, presented market data at the Academy of Managed Care Pharmacy annual meeting on April 15, 2026 ^[2]. IQVIA put the anti-obesity category at nearly $42 billion, a 4.6% share of the pharmaceutical market and the fourth-largest therapeutic area behind immunology at 18.3%, antidiabetes at 16.6% and oncology at 15.2% ^[2]. The two figures are not the same size, and the reports measure different things: the Research and Markets number covers seven countries and obesity therapeutics specifically, while IQVIA's describes the anti-obesity category within the wider drug market. Neither source explains what accounts for the gap.

IQVIA's figures show how fast the category has been growing. GLP-1 therapies generated about $132 billion in sales in 2025, up 33.5% from 2024, with sales for the weight-loss indication alone up 131% on a five-year compounded annual basis ^[2]. Tirzepatide led both diabetes, where Mounjaro reached $39.1 billion in 2025 sales, up 67.1%, and obesity, where Zepbound reached $22.9 billion, up 188.7% ^[2]. Wegovy (semaglutide) reached $18.6 billion, up 29.2% ^[2]. IQVIA projects obesity therapies will add $100 billion in sales growth by 2029 and counts about 190 obesity-related products in the pipeline ^[2].

Both reports point to oral medicines as a main force widening access. Novo Nordisk received US FDA approval for oral Wegovy (semaglutide 25 mg) in December 2025, and about 300,000 patients in the United Kingdom were estimated to be using it within three weeks of launch — a sign, the report says, that oral treatment may attract new patients rather than simply shift existing users off injections ^[1]. Eli Lilly's once-daily oral orforglipron, sold as Foundayo, was approved in April 2026 for adults with obesity or overweight and at least one weight-related comorbidity ^[1]. Other candidates in testing include enicepatide (CT-388), a once-weekly dual GLP-1/GIP drug from Roche and Carmot Therapeutics with Phase II data presented at the American Diabetes Association's 2026 meeting, and RGT-075, an oral once-daily GLP-1 from Regor Therapeutics with Phase IIa topline results reported in January 2025 ^[1].

Prices vary widely by product and dose. Injectable Wegovy carries a US list price of about $1,349 a month, though insurance and cash-pay programs may lower patient costs, according to the report ^[1]. Zepbound is available through Lilly's self-pay program at about $299 to $449 a month depending on dose, and oral Wegovy and Foundayo entered the market with self-pay prices starting at about $149 a month, with many higher-dose regimens priced between $299 and $349 ^[1].

Why it matters for patients

The forecast and sales figures describe a market rather than any individual's care, but they point to a few practical trends. More oral options are reaching the market, which the report says could broaden the number of people treated ^[1]. List prices differ sharply depending on the product and whether a patient pays cash, and the oral products entered at lower self-pay starting prices than injectable Wegovy's list price ^[1]. Where a prescription is filled can also matter: about 41% of independent pharmacies did not dispense obesity-related GLP-1 medicines in the fourth quarter of 2025, often citing profitability tied to reimbursement rates, while retail pharmacies overall accounted for 83% of GLP-1 sales ^[2]. Staying on treatment is another common challenge. In an IQVIA analysis of 2.5 million patients using obesity medicines in retail pharmacies, about 66.5% remained in retail channels after starting and about 28% stopped treatment entirely within the first year; IQVIA said cost barriers, side effects or inconsistent insurance coverage may explain the drop-off ^[2].

What happens next

The Research and Markets report projects growth through 2036 ^[1]. IQVIA projects $100 billion in added obesity sales by 2029 ^[2]. Launch dates, prices or approval timelines for pipeline candidates such as enicepatide and RGT-075 have not been disclosed in these reports ^[1]. How much of the projected growth would come from people newly starting treatment, rather than from patients switching products or paying higher prices, has not been reported.