Sandoz aims for a Canadian generic semaglutide launch this year and excludes GLP-1s from its 2035 plan

Swiss drugmaker Sandoz told investors at its capital markets day on September 8 that it received approval for its generic semaglutide in Brazil in July and is "eyeing a Canada launch this year" for patients with diabetes ^[1]. At the same time, the company said its net sales targets for 2025 through 2035 exclude any contribution from generic versions of GLP-1 drugs for diabetes and obesity ^[1].

Semaglutide is the molecule in Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Rybelsus for type 2 diabetes and Wegovy for weight management. A "generic" version is a copy of the same molecule made by another manufacturer after patent protection ends in a given country — and patent timing varies a lot from country to country.

The numbers behind the plan

Sandoz said it aims to more than double annual net sales by 2035, with most of that coming from biosimilars rather than traditional generics ^[1]. It plans to expand its biosimilars portfolio from 13 drugs today to 100 by 2040, and is targeting mid-to-high single-digit percentage growth in total annual net sales at constant currencies from 2025 to 2030 ^[1]. CEO Richard Saynor has said that over the next 10 years, $650 billion worth of branded products globally are due to lose patent exclusivity ^[1].

The decision to leave GLP-1 generics out of those targets is notable because Sandoz executives clearly think the category is large. Chief Financial Officer Remco Steenbergen declined to put a value on the potential upside, saying forecasts remain highly uncertain, but said the opportunity would be measured in "billions" of dollars ^[1]. He said the market could expand to between two and seven times its current size once lower-cost copies become available, and that Sandoz will aim to capture "as much share as possible" ^[1].

Investors were not immediately impressed. Sandoz shares were trading down 1.7% at 1510 GMT after gaining as much as 5% in morning trading, leaving the stock up around 16% since the start of the year ^[1]. RBC analysts called the mid-term targets "light" while describing the 2035 goals as "more ambitious" ^[1].

The Canada situation

Canada is an unusual case. Earlier Reuters reporting summarized by NAVLIN Daily said Novo Nordisk's Canadian semaglutide patent was set to expire in the first quarter of 2026 after the company failed to pay an annual maintenance fee, opening the door to cheaper copies ^[2]. That report said Sandoz expected to launch in Canada by the end of June 2026 and that its generic had not yet been approved by Health Canada, with an application filed and under review ^[2].

The timelines in the two sources do not match. The earlier report pointed to a launch by end of June 2026 ^[2]; on September 8, Sandoz said it was still "eyeing" a Canada launch this year ^[1]. The sources do not explain the delay, and Health Canada's approval status as of September is not stated in either source.

Why it matters for patients

For people in the United States, nothing changes right now. The sources describe approvals and launch plans in Brazil and Canada only ^[1][2], and they say nothing about when a generic semaglutide might be available in the US or what it would cost. Sandoz's own decision to exclude GLP-1 generics from a decade of sales guidance is a signal that the legal and pricing path outside a few markets remains unsettled enough that the company will not forecast it ^[1].

The broader context matters too. Sandoz said it opened a biosimilar development centre in Ljubljana in June after committing more than $1.1 billion in Slovenia, and will invest another $300 million there for a new manufacturing plant ^[1]. Saynor also said Sandoz "continues to have a very good dialogue" with the Trump administration after the president in July threatened the generic medicines industry with steep tariffs unless drugmakers manufacture in the US ^[1]. Tariffs and where copies get made could affect prices of low-cost medicines for American patients, though the sources give no specifics on GLP-1s.

What happens next

Sandoz has said it wants a Canadian launch before the end of 2026 ^[1]. Whether Health Canada clears the product, and when, is not known from these sources. No US filing, approval date or price has been disclosed.