Analysts weigh semaglutide's 2030s patent cliff

Morgan Stanley cut its rating on Novo Nordisk to Underweight from Equal-weight on September 11, 2026, pointing to a subdued mid-term growth outlook and concerns about the coming patent cliff for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus ^[1]. The bank kept a price target of 250 Danish crowns, implying more than 10% downside from the stock's last close, and Novo shares fell 2.6% in early Copenhagen trading on the news ^[1].

Semaglutide accounted for 75% of Novo Nordisk's sales in 2026, and the drug's patent protection is set to lapse in the early-to-mid 2030s across both the United States and Europe ^[1]. Morgan Stanley's own model still has semaglutide making up 59% of sales in 2031, the year the bank expects loss-of-exclusivity effects to begin showing up in the numbers ^[1]. The analysts forecast Novo's oral obesity franchise, which includes the Wegovy pill launched in January, will grow to $10 billion in sales by 2031, but said that "will not be enough to offset pricing and competitive headwinds" once generic competition arrives ^{[1] [2]}.

A survey of 200 primary care physicians commissioned by Morgan Stanley found growing use of GLP-1 drugs for diabetes and obesity overall, but also signaled that Novo could lose market share over the next 18 months to Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro, plus Lilly's experimental retatrutide, expected in 2027 ^[1]. On valuation, Novo trades at 12.5 times projected 2027 earnings, a 7% discount to European large-pharma peers but a 35% premium over companies like Sanofi and GSK that face their own patent expirations, according to the bank ^[1].

Separately, Novo Nordisk reported that in a phase 3 trial of semaglutide in children ages 6 to 11, more than 85% of whom had Class II or Class III obesity, 40.4% of those on the drug were no longer classified as obese after 68 weeks, compared with 0% of those on placebo, with safety results consistent with prior GLP-1 data ^[2]. The sources reviewed here do not detail specifics on Novo's other late-stage pipeline programs, such as CagriSema or amycretin, so how much those candidates might offset the coming semaglutide patent losses is not yet known from this reporting.

Why it matters for patients

For people currently using Ozempic, Wegovy or Rybelsus, this analysis is about the company's long-term business, not an immediate change to any drug's availability, price or safety profile. But the patent cliff timeline matters because once semaglutide's exclusivity ends in the early-to-mid 2030s, generic or biosimilar versions could eventually enter the U.S. market, which historically tends to lower prices over time. Until then, Novo's move toward oral formulations and, if approved, potential use in younger children reflects the company's effort to expand who can use semaglutide and in what form, which could affect insurance coverage and treatment options in the coming years ^{[1] [2]}.

What happens next

Morgan Stanley said it expects "limited scope for major announcements" at Novo Nordisk's capital markets day scheduled for September 21, 2026, though the company is expected to reiterate its strategy for the oral obesity market and give updates on other disease areas, including MASH and chronic kidney disease ^[1]. The bank's growth forecasts extend through 2030, with the patent cliff's financial impact expected to begin in 2031 ^[1].