Foundayo prescriptions reach 7,335 in fourth week as Lilly's weight-loss pill trails oral Wegovy

Eli Lilly's weight-loss pill Foundayo (orforglipron) was prescribed 7,335 times in the United States in the fourth week after its launch, analysts said, a modest uptake for the oral drug and far behind the pace set by Novo Nordisk's competing Wegovy pill (semaglutide) ^[1].

The fourth-week figure, reported May 8, is up from 5,612 prescriptions in the third week, according to analysts citing IQVIA data ^[1][2]. IQVIA's numbers cover retail prescriptions plus samples of telehealth, LillyDirect and mail-order prescriptions, and two analysts said gaps in telehealth data may cause the weekly Foundayo numbers to fluctuate ^[1].

Lilly executives said last week that more than 20,000 patients have been treated with Foundayo and that the drug has more than 8,000 prescribers, a third of whom had not previously written an oral GLP-1 prescription ^[1][2]. More than 12 major telehealth firms are offering Foundayo, accounting for about 35% of launch volume, the company said ^[1].

The Wegovy pill launched in January and has a first-mover advantage in the oral weight-loss drug market ^[1]. It was prescribed more than 18,000 times in the first full week after its launch and most recently more than 134,000 times in its 16th week ^[2]. RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh noted that based on about 20,000 patients on Foundayo, "it appears there is a capture rate issue with the data" ^[2].

Huynh said Foundayo's prescriptions need to rise soon "in order to hit (the) consensus (expectation)," adding that the pill will need about 22,000 prescriptions per week to reach consensus expectations of $160 million in second-quarter sales ^[1]. He also said "we're beginning to see investors looking past initial weekly script tracking metrics as the barometer for Foundayo's future potential" ^[1]. RBC analysts said it will take at least 8 to 12 weeks to get a clearer read on the drug's commercial momentum, and that by week 12 Foundayo would need more than 90,000 weekly prescriptions to remain on track for average annual sales expectations of about $1.4 billion ^[2].

Why it matters for patients

Patients now have two oral GLP-1 options rather than one, but the early prescription counts do not show how many people will ultimately use Foundayo. The weekly counts are a measure of prescriptions filled, not of patients, and the reports note possible gaps in telehealth data ^[1]. That mismatch is visible in the difference between 7,335 prescriptions in week four and Lilly's statement that more than 20,000 patients have been treated ^[1][2].

Investors are betting that the next generation of weight-loss pills will expand the market to millions of patients and help counter pricing pressure ^[1], which could affect what insurers and pharmacy benefit managers cover over time. Whether Foundayo is priced or covered differently from the Wegovy pill has not been disclosed in these reports, and no head-to-head clinical comparison of the two oral drugs appears in them. The reports also say nothing about side effects or how the two pills compare for any individual patient.

Lilly began accepting Foundayo prescriptions on LillyDirect the day it was approved, April 1, started shipping April 6 and reached broad availability through U.S. retail pharmacies and telehealth providers on April 9 ^[1][2].

What happens next

RBC's Huynh expects a clearer picture of Foundayo's real momentum after 8 to 12 weeks ^[2]. The thresholds analysts are watching are about 22,000 weekly prescriptions for $160 million in second-quarter sales ^[1] and more than 90,000 weekly prescriptions by week 12 to stay on track for roughly $1.4 billion in average annual sales ^[2]. No date for the next weekly update or for Lilly's next earnings report has been reported.