Aon projects 9.5% rise in US employer health costs for 2027, citing GLP-1 drugs

Aon expects U.S. employer healthcare costs to rise 9.5 percent in 2027, a projection the insurance brokerage and consulting firm published on August 20 that would push average spending past $19,000 per employee ^[1]. The firm pointed to heavier use of specialty medicines and to GLP-1 treatments for diabetes, obesity and other conditions as part of what is driving prescription drug costs higher ^[1].

If the forecast holds, employers would absorb a fourth year in a row of nearly double-digit growth ^[1]. Aon's explanation includes patients using more healthcare services, chronic conditions becoming more common, and a growing number of high-cost claims ^[1]. It also flagged providers adopting technologies, including AI, that support more detailed clinical documentation and coding, "contributing to higher billed charges in some instances" ^[1].

For the current year, Aon estimates the average cost to an employer will rise 8.8 percent to $14,432 per employee, while total plan costs grow 8.3 percent to $17,562 ^[1]. Employers are expected to pay about 82 percent of plan costs in 2026 ^[1]. Workers are projected to spend an average of $5,297 — $3,130 through payroll contributions and $2,167 out of pocket — which is 7.9 percent more than the year before ^[1].

The estimates draw on more than 1,100 U.S. employers covering 7.9 million employees and $135 billion in 2026 healthcare spending ^[1]. Aon notes the 9.5 percent figure assumes no benefit design changes and no care-management programs, and says its consultants expect many employers to pursue savings through one or both ^[1]. The report does not spell out whether the $19,000 figure refers to total plan costs or to the employer's share; its 2026 numbers put total plan costs at $17,562 and the employer's average cost at $14,432 ^[1].

Some large employers have already acted. Starbucks confirmed it will stop covering GLP-1 medications prescribed for weight loss in October, while continuing coverage when the same drugs are prescribed for diabetes and other approved conditions ^[2]. The change applies to benefits-eligible employees, which at Starbucks means those scheduled for at least 20 hours a week ^[2].

Surveys cited in that reporting suggest Starbucks is not alone. Mercer found 6 percent of large employers dropped GLP-1 weight-loss coverage during 2026, with another 5 percent intending to do so in 2027 ^[2]. The International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans reported that GLP-1 drugs made up 11.4 percent of corporate employers' total annual health claims in 2024, compared with 6.9 percent in 2023 ^[2].

Other benefit reductions announced or confirmed that week include Walt Disney's plan to stop covering working spouses who can get coverage through their own employer beginning in 2027, a change affecting more than 200,000 U.S. employees; Bloomberg LP's first monthly employee premium contributions, with no amounts or start date specified; parental leave cuts at Deloitte for employees in its Center talent segment effective January 1, 2027; and shorter parental leave at Zoom, which took effect in 2026 ^[2]. Joshua Lavine, chief executive of the insurance advisory firm Capitol Benefits, called the Disney approach "the extreme, nothing-else-can-work solution" ^[2].

Why it matters for patients

Whether a GLP-1 prescription gets paid for increasingly depends on the plan a patient's employer chooses, not only on whether regulators have approved the drug. Starbucks keeps coverage for diabetes and other approved uses and removes it for weight loss ^[2]. The reporting does not identify any specific semaglutide, tirzepatide or other branded product being dropped from an employer formulary ^[2].

Aon's numbers are averages across a large group of employers. They are not a prediction of what any single patient will pay, and the firm has not published a breakdown showing how much of the increase comes from GLP-1 drugs specifically ^[1]. Because the 9.5 percent projection assumes employers make no changes, the final figure could come in lower if plans add cost-management programs or redesign benefits ^[1].

What happens next

• October: Starbucks ends employer-sponsored coverage of GLP-1 drugs for weight-loss prescriptions ^[2].
• January 1, 2027: Deloitte's changes take effect for Center segment employees ^[2].
• 2027 plan year: Disney's spousal eligibility change begins ^[2]. Open enrollment discussions for calendar-year plans are already underway ^[2].
• 2027: Aon's 9.5 percent projection applies to this plan year, and the firm expects many employers to try to reduce it ^[1].