Lilly raises 2025 outlook as Mounjaro and Zepbound sales jump, but orforglipron data misses expectations

Eli Lilly raised its full-year 2025 guidance on Aug. 7 after reporting second-quarter revenue of $15.56 billion, up 38% from the same period a year earlier, driven by its weight loss and diabetes drugs ^[1][2]. The same morning, the company released the first late-stage trial result for its experimental obesity pill, orforglipron, and its shares fell as much as 12% in premarket trading because the weight loss came in below what Wall Street had expected ^[2].

Mounjaro (tirzepatide) generated $5.20 billion in revenue, up 68%, and Zepbound (tirzepatide) generated $3.38 billion, up 172% ^[1]. Analysts surveyed by StreetAccount had expected $4.49 billion for Mounjaro and $3.06 billion for Zepbound, according to CNBC ^[2]. U.S. revenue rose 38% to $10.81 billion, driven by a 46% increase in volume and partly offset by an 8% decrease from lower realized prices ^[1][2]. Net income was $5.66 billion, or $6.29 per share on a reported basis and $6.31 on a non-GAAP basis, compared with $2.97 billion and $3.28 a year earlier ^[1][2]. Research and development spending rose 23% to $3.34 billion ^[1].

Lilly lifted its 2025 revenue range to $60 billion to $62 billion, from a previous outlook of $58 billion to $61 billion, and raised adjusted earnings guidance to $21.75 to $23.00 per share from $20.78 to $22.28 ^[1][2]. CNBC reported that the guidance reflects tariffs in place as of Aug. 7 but does not include planned levies on pharmaceuticals imported into the U.S. ^[2].

In the first of two pivotal Phase 3 trials in adults with obesity, Lilly said orforglipron delivered weight loss of up to an average of 27.3 pounds ^[1]. CNBC reported that the highest dose helped patients lose more than 12% of their body weight, which came in under Wall Street's expectations ^[2]. CEO David Ricks told CNBC: "I feel good about the value of the company. Investors have to decide what they think. But Lilly is rolling, and you look at the beat and raise, strong growth on the back half, we're excited about the future for our company and for patients who need our products" ^[2]. Ricks also said tirzepatide, the molecule in Mounjaro and Zepbound, "will likely become the bestselling drug in the industry in its third year in the market" ^[2].

Why it matters for patients

Mounjaro and Zepbound are the two U.S. brand names for tirzepatide, and both posted large volume gains this quarter. U.S. volume rose 46% while realized prices fell 8% ^[1]. Realized prices are what Lilly collects on average; they are not the same as list prices or what an individual patient pays at the pharmacy counter, and no figure for patient out-of-pocket costs appears in these reports. Lilly said it expanded manufacturing capacity to meet increasing demand ^[1].

For people who would prefer a pill to an injection, orforglipron is not approved for any use. The result reported Aug. 7 is from the first of two pivotal Phase 3 obesity trials, and the second has not been reported ^[1]. Lilly has not disclosed in these materials when it plans to file for regulatory approval, and no filing date has been announced.

What happens next

Sept. 29 is the deadline in letters President Donald Trump sent to Lilly and other drugmakers asking them to take steps to lower U.S. drug prices ^[2]. Lilly's guidance does not include the planned tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, and the timing of those levies has not been disclosed ^[2].

Results from the second pivotal Phase 3 trial of orforglipron in obesity and any regulatory submission timeline have not been reported ^[1].