Trump credits TrumpRx and drug deals for falling prices, while experts point to other causes

Prescription drug prices fell 0.8% in July and are down 3.1% from a year earlier, the steepest one-year decline since 1963, according to Consumer Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics ^[1][2]. Prices are down 3.3% since the start of 2026, the sharpest six-month drop since the agency began tracking prescription drug costs in 1947 ^[1].

President Donald Trump and his administration attribute the decline to "most favored nation" agreements with pharmaceutical companies, which tie certain U.S. prices to those in other developed countries, and to TrumpRx, the federal direct-to-consumer discount site launched in February ^[1]. "Under my most-favored-nation policy on drug prices, we are delivering the largest prescription drug price cuts in the history of our country," Trump said in an Aug. 14 speech ^[1]. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz told CBS News' "Face the Nation" that the savings were "primarily driven not just by having the medications at most-favored-nation pricing, but available to the American people on TrumpRx.gov" ^[1].

Drug pricing experts say other factors are likely larger contributors. "I think it's totally possible that there are both some Republican policies — or, you know, Trump policies — as well as Biden policies that are at play here," Cynthia Cox, a senior vice president at the health policy research organization KFF, told FactCheck.org. "But I think there's also just market forces at play, in particular around GLP-1 drugs, that are really hard to ignore" ^[1].

Those other factors include generic and biosimilar competition, which lowers prices for brand-name and biologic drugs. Dr. Benjamin Rome of Harvard Medical School pointed to biosimilars that treat the same autoimmune conditions as Humira, and Stacie Dusetzina of Vanderbilt University School of Medicine cited competition for the biologic Stelara ^[2]. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which for the first time let Medicare negotiate prices for top-selling drugs, is also in play: negotiated prices for the first 10 drugs took effect in January ^[2].

"It's difficult to know in one number what's going on beneath the hood," said Juliette Cubanski, a vice president at KFF. "I don't think we can attribute this price reduction to any one specific policy change or initiative" ^[2].

The reach of the deals is limited

Since November, the administration has announced agreements with 17 large drug companies, including Pfizer, Merck and Johnson & Johnson, to apply most-favored-nation pricing to certain drugs in exchange for three years of tariff relief ^[1]. For drugs already on the market, those prices apply only in limited settings: state Medicaid programs, direct-to-consumer sales through TrumpRx, and certain GLP-1 weight loss and diabetes drugs sold to Medicare or Medicaid. The agreements do not cover drugs already on the market for the majority of Americans who use private insurance ^[1].

"Right now, the only places where those MFN prices would show up in the CPI would be through TrumpRx," said Jeromie Ballreich, a health economist at Johns Hopkins University. He said TrumpRx serves a relatively small group of patients and is "not a big factor in the market" ^[1]. Richard Frank of the Brookings Institution said the number of drugs actually negotiated is "unknown, but probably small," and that it is "not even obvious that those have been implemented yet" ^[1].

The White House said TrumpRx has saved patients more than $700 million and that most-favored-nation policies are projected to save over $500 billion over 10 years ^[1]. The administration has not released how it calculated the $700 million figure, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren has questioned it in a letter ^[2]. That $700 million equals less than 0.2% of the $467 billion spent on prescription drugs in the U.S. in 2024, according to national health expenditure data ^[1]. A separate Trump administration policy lowering GLP-1 prices for certain eligible Medicare enrollees took effect in July, so only its first month is reflected in the data ^[2].

Why it matters for patients

The index tracks what pharmacies are paid by insurers and consumers, not what patients hand over at the counter, so a falling national number does not automatically mean a smaller bill for any one person ^[2]. What patients pay depends on whether they have insurance, which plan they have, and whether a cheaper generic or biosimilar exists for their drug ^[2].

For most people with private insurance, the most-favored-nation prices do not apply, because the agreements do not cover drugs already on the market in that setting ^[1]. TrumpRx offers discounts to people paying cash, and experts said it may help patients without insurance or those who need expensive drugs their plan will not cover, including GLP-1 drugs for weight loss. But many brand-name drugs on the site are cheaper through insurance or have lower-cost generics sold elsewhere, and it is unclear how many people use the service ^[1][2].

Experts also noted that even as drug prices decline, rising health spending and federal policy changes are pushing premiums and out-of-pocket costs up for many Americans ^[2]. How much of the decline can be tied to any single policy has not been established, and the contracts behind the most-favored-nation deals have not been made public ^[2].